PolyBot

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Traders

lottonakamoto

0x2884f98185d2005691d245f3e2e70b15d1e1d0c3

Realised P&L
$1.2k
Volume
$853.9k
Markets traded
914
Open portfolio
$11.9k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded914
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration63.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026? · No0.9320.817$1.5k−$207.65
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026? · Yes0.9080.930$1.4k+$31.64
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027? · No0.7960.795$1.3k−$2.10
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026? · No0.9470.938$831.79−$8.34
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · No0.9510.970$708.14+$13.29
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? · No0.9020.955$694.76+$37.94
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? · Yes0.4720.615$623.82+$145.38
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? · No0.7650.785$572.85+$14.19
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? · No0.6260.385$342.60−$214.19
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? · No0.9640.993$311.89+$8.97
Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026? · Yes0.9410.866$286.19−$25.11
Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026? · No0.9190.938$270.80+$5.57
Will Waymo launch in Tokyo, Japan by December 31 2026? · No0.8430.961$245.15+$30.11
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026? · Yes0.0950.183$243.49+$117.59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.6360.535$211.76−$40.06

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-02 06:07Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?BUY0.957$50.53
11-02 06:04Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?BUY0.79$7.90
11-02 05:49Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.57$5.70
11-01 19:22EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?SELL0.87$40.02
11-01 19:11Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026?BUY0.95$19.01
11-01 19:11Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026?BUY0.939$19.72
11-01 19:08NATO downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?SELL0.5$10.00
11-01 16:26Will Waymo launch in Boston, MA by December 31 2026?SELL0.964$10.60
11-01 16:22Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?BUY0.968$44.67
11-01 16:21Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026?BUY0.938$32.83
11-01 13:55Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?BUY0.967$50.32
11-01 11:04Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?BUY0.73$23.94
11-01 07:51Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?BUY0.9$27.00
10-31 22:53Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?BUY0.916$43.83
10-31 22:53Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026?BUY0.938$22.69