Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://lmarena.ai/
Rewards: 20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.06. down 0.03 over the period, from 0.09. Range 0.06 to 0.09. 151 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.07	152	152
0.08	1,265	1,417
0.09	641	2,059
0.10	498	2,556
0.11	220	2,776
0.13	138	2,914
0.17	5	2,919
0.19	26	2,945
0.39	20	2,965
0.58	98	3,063
0.59	435	3,498
0.79	101	3,599

Spread0.02Mid0.06

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.05	189	189
0.04	806	995
0.03	1,023	2,018
0.02	6,135	8,153
0.01	6,033	14,186

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.95	189	189
0.96	806	995
0.97	1,023	2,018
0.98	6,135	8,153
0.99	6,033	14,186

Spread0.02Mid0.94

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.93	152	152
0.92	1,265	1,417
0.91	641	2,059
0.90	498	2,556
0.89	220	2,776
0.87	138	2,914
0.83	5	2,919
0.81	26	2,945
0.61	20	2,965
0.42	98	3,063
0.41	435	3,498
0.21	101	3,599

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
SammeK	Yes	1,145.19
macrosteaks	Yes	313
Numitus1994	Yes	215.53
thecaricature	Yes	177.83
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	152.82
thursdays	Yes	96.35
dropmeplease	Yes	86.61
0xd38F5f17D57b4deD218dfCBcA4Bd8dEEe78ABf78-1782112319192	Yes	43
0x6b0e…e3ea	Yes	39
PPMT	Yes	34.12
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	29.52
0x58e80Dd4a5c365BA380795103f5E0963a287bB5A-1781767424338	Yes	26.14
ghorrock	Yes	24.54
1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9	Yes	20
buur	Yes	20
plusdome	Yes	18.06
0x2cD08Fd366105BcaF5B1e049461ABEF08c74F897-1782143691535	Yes	14.29
0xDDd78f704dF32B10Bebb913Aa4C288f6ab74A820-1770099842522	Yes	13.39
Lavincey	Yes	10
gawkgawk	Yes	10

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
12:45:10	BUY	No	0.93	222	$206.46
12:45:10	BUY	No	0.94	24	$22.56
12:45:10	BUY	No	0.94	20	$18.80
16:25:57	SELL	Yes	0.07	22	$1.56
21:05:08	SELL	Yes	0.07	22	$1.54
19:56:48	BUY	Yes	0.0899999969	22	$2.00
01:20:30	BUY	Yes	0.07	20	$1.40
00:23:38	BUY	No	0.9399999979	19	$18.05
22:45:17	BUY	No	0.93	20	$18.60
22:45:17	SELL	Yes	0.08	45	$3.60
17:24:36	SELL	Yes	0.08	5	$0.40
23:11:15	BUY	Yes	0.08	15	$1.20
23:03:53	SELL	No	0.92	20	$18.00
23:03:39	BUY	Yes	0.07	20	$1.40
23:02:47	BUY	Yes	0.07	56	$3.92
23:02:24	BUY	Yes	0.08	68	$5.44
23:02:06	BUY	Yes	0.08	13	$1.04
23:01:42	BUY	Yes	0.08	68	$5.44
12:09:54	BUY	No	0.9399999855	3	$2.59
07:58:53	BUY	Yes	0.08	40	$3.20
10:20:32	BUY	Yes	0.08	15	$1.20
09:16:23	BUY	Yes	0.08	30	$2.40
09:09:08	BUY	Yes	0.08	16	$1.28
09:08:53	BUY	Yes	0.08	18	$1.44
09:08:23	BUY	Yes	0.08	25	$2.00