SammeK
0xcd5c369f76c580c11041aa1414a91f08cc92626b
- Realised P&L
- $-2.7k
- Volume
- $58.2k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $143.15
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.125 | $143.15 | −$171.85 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.99 |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? · Yes | 0.398 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$914.23at 0.638Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$9.67at 0.931Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
- +$0.43at 0.610SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
- +$-5.82at 0.750Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$-18.12at 0.940Bitcoin new all time high in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 12:54 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1381358566 | $20.00 |
| 08-13 12:31 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999902 | $10.00 |
| 06-30 21:06 | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 06-28 18:43 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1615201838 | $20.00 |
| 06-12 14:10 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY | 0.6 | $25.00 |
| 06-11 19:35 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $8.00 |
| 05-21 16:21 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 19:23 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.9276713941 | $130.00 |
| 05-13 15:29 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2115384461 | $10.00 |
| 05-12 17:48 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999931 | $20.00 |
| 05-11 07:39 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2367941642 | $25.00 |
| 05-08 19:14 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3922684712 | $200.00 |
| 04-20 13:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.68 | $56.49 |
| 04-20 05:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.75 | $62.31 |
| 04-20 04:31 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.0308777689 | $43.00 |