gawkgawk
0x78d4be5f5e9900cbe771e6e2e21a959f02a9c133
- Realised P&L
- $10.75
- Volume
- $5.7k
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $5.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.275 | $2.75 | −$0.35 |
| Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.295 | $1.48 | −$0.72 |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.125 | $1.25 | −$0.15 |
| Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 Winner · FURIA Esports | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 2 Winner · NRG | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs · NRG | 0.269 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.02 |
| Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 1 Winner · NRG | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.53at 0.071Solana Up or Down - January 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
- +$8.53at 0.360Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
- +$7.79at 0.082Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$6.18at 0.450Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
- +$6.18at 0.722Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 21:29 | Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 21:26 | Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha | BUY | 0.1399999426 | $2.00 |
| 07-12 15:37 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.16 | $2.00 |
| 07-12 15:24 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 14:46 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 07-12 14:45 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.3699999674 | $5.00 |
| 07-12 14:43 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | SELL | 0.62 | $18.60 |
| 07-12 14:42 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 1 Winner | SELL | 0.94 | $4.70 |
| 07-12 14:36 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 1 Winner | SELL | 0.21 | $1.50 |
| 07-12 14:23 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 14:18 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 1 Winner | SELL | 0.61 | $3.66 |
| 07-12 13:48 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.43 | $4.30 |
| 07-12 13:47 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.43 | $8.60 |
| 06-21 21:15 | Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.03 | $1.02 |
| 06-21 21:13 | Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $2.20 |