PolyBot

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Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.53. up 0.05 over the period, from 0.48. Range 0.42 to 0.57. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.633333
0.642256
0.6850106
0.6955161
0.70698859
0.7110869
0.7225894
0.7330924
0.7430954
0.7530984
0.78451,029
0.79201,049

Spread0.20Mid0.53

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.431919
0.361939
0.352362
0.34668
0.1840108
0.175113
0.1250163
0.1020183
0.0910193
0.0426219
0.0310229
0.0250279

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.571919
0.641939
0.652362
0.66668
0.8240108
0.835113
0.8850163
0.9020183
0.9110193
0.9626219
0.9710229
0.9850279

Spread0.20Mid0.47

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.373333
0.362256
0.3250106
0.3155161
0.30698859
0.2910869
0.2825894
0.2730924
0.2630954
0.2530984
0.22451,029
0.21201,049

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
0x06d898dd11C4c1ffcA1F91c2c47f6E379b4C9446-1776245316934Yes1,660
LieutenantMiloMinderbinderYes1,545.97
ArmageddonRewardsBillyYes1,302.88
donthackmeYes978.44
LornaPredictsYes800
DEGENKHANYes767.55
MatthewRivers1809Yes767
Stas77Yes692.7
warptradingYes625
varch01Yes500.03
zhongdianYes408
plsnoloseYes375
bauziYes350
0x0d10ff6c461e75Da4792f4fD8FD1d414e6A66B3d-1733169443822Yes300
AustinWhitaker3069Yes288
dpndv2Yes183.54
productsYes182
haruk098Yes135
wtfsssYes130.64
megadarkparticleYes120.09

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
21:23:21SELLYes0.445$2.14
21:23:10SELLYes0.445$2.20
21:23:09BUYYes0.48999998245$2.50
20:15:19SELLNo0.53$1.71
17:31:58BUYYes0.5210$5.20
15:15:12BUYNo0.568$4.48
21:14:33BUYYes0.555500927643$23.95
06:33:01SELLYes0.418$3.17
05:40:03BUYYes0.395$1.95
05:39:00BUYNo0.435$2.15
16:47:22BUYYes0.540$20.00
16:47:18BUYYes0.5441928721148$80.47
16:06:46BUYYes0.2211$2.51
17:43:12BUYYes0.4410$4.33
18:43:37BUYYes0.465$2.30
18:30:19BUYYes0.311$3.43
18:30:12BUYYes0.183569131816$2.85
17:58:36SELLYes0.1710$1.65
17:58:30SELLYes0.175$0.83
17:58:24SELLYes0.170$0.00
17:58:18SELLYes0.175$0.87
12:38:42SELLYes0.163$0.43
21:39:39SELLYes0.2002420$4.00
21:05:13BUYYes0.23999986945$1.25
11:47:13SELLYes0.4540$18.13