zhongdian
0xc31978500c02b2f98159c2aec53bc6baf5b36baa
- Realised P&L
- $1.17
- Volume
- $75.5k
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $572.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · No | 0.780 | 1.000 | $356.00 | +$78.32 |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.530 | $216.24 | +$36.72 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$37.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$330.26at 0.166Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?
- +$327.81at 0.510Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5
- +$246.58at 0.600Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?
- +$202.40at 0.170Oscars Bingo
- +$157.92at 0.520Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 09:18 | Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $467.68 |
| 04-27 09:17 | Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $473.60 |
| 04-27 09:16 | Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $139.86 |
| 04-23 10:50 | Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.2k |
| 04-09 12:37 | Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL | 0.79 | $284.40 |
| 04-08 02:40 | Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.88 | $316.80 |
| 04-07 10:38 | Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.26 | $149.50 |
| 03-14 11:15 | Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? | BUY | 0.78 | $277.68 |
| 03-14 08:29 | Will "Prowler" be said during the Valorant Masters Grand Finals? | BUY | 0.17 | $223.38 |
| 03-13 07:57 | Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 27? | SELL | 0.46 | $236.90 |
| 03-13 01:28 | Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 27? | BUY | 0.66 | $821.04 |
| 03-10 15:42 | Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference? | SELL | 0.84 | $136.92 |
| 03-10 15:41 | Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference? | SELL | 0.84 | $217.56 |
| 03-10 11:17 | Rippling IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $177.12 |
| 03-10 11:16 | Rippling IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $44.28 |