AustinWhitaker3069
0x7039b2558f3fa83856ee251f8c4aa58f39922d8a
- Realised P&L
- $-248.82
- Volume
- $82.8k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $423.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.915 | $224.18 | +$69.83 |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.530 | $152.64 | +$31.68 |
| Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.835 | $46.76 | +$7.00 |
| Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.110 | $0.11 | −$0.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$182.97at 0.810Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?
- +$158.73at 0.630Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Paris Basketball
- +$133.60at 0.837Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
- +$128.96at 0.510Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
- +$119.46at 0.780Will "War" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 14:57 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $154.35 |
| 04-12 15:11 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $65.78 |
| 03-24 04:48 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $22.44 |
| 03-22 02:26 | Will Austria win on 2026-03-27? | SELL | 0.45 | $84.60 |
| 03-22 02:24 | Will Austria win on 2026-03-27? | SELL | 0.45 | $127.80 |
| 03-21 19:26 | Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $572.36 |
| 03-20 13:37 | Will Austria win on 2026-03-27? | BUY | 0.47 | $221.84 |
| 03-16 14:27 | Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $579.34 |
| 03-16 01:19 | Will Jensen Huang say "Meta" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote? | SELL | 0.53 | $331.25 |
| 03-14 13:23 | Will Jensen Huang say "Meta" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote? | BUY | 0.61 | $381.25 |
| 03-10 11:24 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | SELL | 0.57 | $55.86 |
| 02-28 22:58 | Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.84 | $46.20 |
| 02-28 20:03 | Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $202.12 |
| 02-28 17:45 | Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $202.12 |
| 02-28 16:15 | Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? | SELL | 0.79 | $378.41 |