PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

megadarkparticle

0xa67d4743aeb60ba703fcf2459dcf7495a319c6f9

Realised P&L
$-11.3k
Volume
$736.6k
Markets traded
8,163
Open portfolio
$2.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded8,163
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration5.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0800.085$467.50+$27.50
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? · Yes0.7700.690$185.16$21.50
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.1400.025$159.25$750.75
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.5380.655$134.51+$24.06
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6990.815$133.27+$18.94
Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes0.8570.993$129.09+$17.69
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? · Yes0.7010.835$95.19+$15.25
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? · Yes0.4250.405$85.39$4.34
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? · Yes0.1700.695$83.39+$62.99
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? · Yes0.1790.685$76.72+$56.67
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? · Yes0.1890.331$75.61+$32.44
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? · Yes0.4740.665$59.91+$17.21
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.1620.247$50.83+$17.55
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes0.9320.981$49.02+$2.44
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? · Yes0.3110.195$45.54$27.19

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-23 09:56Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ETBUY0.5599999776$5.00
05-19 09:12Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?BUY0.3795529412$32.26
05-16 22:54Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 50 and 74 points?BUY0.04$0.38
05-16 22:08Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 50 and 74 points?BUY0.09$0.48
05-16 19:41Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be less than 25 points?BUY0.33$28.05
05-16 15:24Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?BUY0.16$3.81
05-14 05:32Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 14?BUY0.336$28.56
05-12 14:34Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of May 11 – May 15?BUY0.28$23.80
05-12 12:30Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?BUY0.01$0.85
05-12 12:30Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?BUY0.01$0.85
05-09 04:12Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 10?BUY0.3$6.00
05-09 02:38Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 10?BUY0.32$6.40
05-09 02:37Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 10?BUY0.32$6.40
05-08 19:55Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $210-$215 on the final day of trading of the week of May 4 – May 8?BUY0.29$5.80
05-08 16:41Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $420-$430 on the final day of trading of the week of May 4 – May 8?BUY0.13$11.05