PolyBot

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Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2027-04-01
Resolves by
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Rewards
50 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.24. down 0.03 over the period, from 0.27. Range 0.16 to 0.38. 150 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.25100100
0.26164264
0.2768332
0.30194526
0.31105631
0.32299930
0.331841,114
0.35301,144
0.401001,244
0.415401,784
0.43351,819
0.4491,828

Spread0.02Mid0.24

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.236464
0.22169234
0.21400634
0.2050684
0.1933717
0.18130847
0.145852
0.115857
0.105862
0.09100962
0.081111,073
0.07711,145

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.776464
0.78169234
0.79400634
0.8050684
0.8133717
0.82130847
0.865852
0.895857
0.905862
0.91100962
0.921111,073
0.93711,145

Spread0.02Mid0.76

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.75100100
0.74164264
0.7368332
0.70194526
0.69105631
0.68299930
0.671841,114
0.65301,144
0.601001,244
0.595401,784
0.57351,819
0.5691,828

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209Yes5,770.51
Hugin-og-MuninYes420
xtxpleasecallmeYes347.94
donthackmeYes234.74
cigarettesYes168.17
Leclerc04Yes65
0xf51b…ca1bYes50
pppnnYes43.75
pootytherewardfarmerYes41.75
fd65g41fd65Yes20
0xcaf2…922fYes17.02
rocky42011Yes14.77
0xa169…1b73Yes12
monoclithYes3.92
imdad26Yes1.52
AMAM13Yes1
0xa5ef…2966No6,476.45
webot-aiNo161.26
0xd295…07d2No147
0x00cDEa4d807710807cdBC54AD34cFAFCd992c0aE-1782010404295No130

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
19:22:18BUYNo0.7623$17.48
19:22:18BUYNo0.7727$20.79
19:22:16BUYNo0.7627$20.52
19:22:16BUYNo0.7723$17.71
18:54:10BUYNo0.7622$16.72
17:58:00SELLNo0.7650$38.00
17:57:58BUYYes0.2189033404456$99.80
17:57:58BUYYes0.2347$10.81
17:57:58BUYYes0.2350$11.50
17:57:58BUYYes0.2350$11.50
15:57:21BUYYes0.2152$10.92
15:56:18BUYYes0.1966666667150$29.50
15:26:28BUYNo0.7950$39.50
15:26:27SELLYes0.22300$66.00
14:16:52SELLYes0.2322156131501$116.34
14:04:54SELLNo0.7242$30.24
14:04:54SELLNo0.73105$76.65
14:04:52BUYYes0.2151819001944$203.06
14:04:52BUYYes0.2350$11.50
07:50:40SELLYes0.2250$11.00
07:48:39BUYYes0.240816080450$11.98
07:48:39BUYYes0.219999998976$16.75
07:48:36BUYYes0.21191$40.01
07:46:19BUYYes0.2100$20.00
07:45:55SELLYes0.2054475414557$114.40