PolyBot

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Traders

0xcaf2333a761024641a92786b8ebedcbe0f94922f

0xcaf2333a761024641a92786b8ebedcbe0f94922f

Realised P&L
$-0.62
Volume
$303.44
Markets traded
31
Open portfolio
$8.65

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded31
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration49.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample28 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)35.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration47.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5? · Yes0.0590.240$4.08+$3.09
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? · No0.8100.930$2.30+$0.30
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? · Yes0.2600.205$1.58−$0.42
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft? · Yes0.1800.041$0.68−$2.32
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5? · Yes0.0590.001$0.01−$0.99

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-17 11:57Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?SELL0.002$0.03
10-17 11:56Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?SELL0.002$0.03
10-08 14:20Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?BUY0.2399999808$2.00
10-08 12:01Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?SELL0.41$1.84
10-08 11:01Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?SELL0.4$0.42
10-05 08:47Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?BUY0.2599999896$2.00
10-05 08:06Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on October 5?SELL0.97$2.00
10-05 08:00Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on October 5?BUY0.9699999951$2.00
10-04 08:02Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 4?SELL0.75$0.53
10-04 08:01Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 4?SELL0.87$1.16
10-04 08:01Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 4?BUY0.98$2.00
10-04 06:49Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on October 4?SELL0.89$1.85
10-04 06:24Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on October 4?BUY0.96$2.00
10-04 06:03Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on October 4?SELL0.99$2.04
10-04 05:30Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on October 4?BUY0.9699999951$2.00