0xcaf2333a761024641a92786b8ebedcbe0f94922f
0xcaf2333a761024641a92786b8ebedcbe0f94922f
- Realised P&L
- $-0.62
- Volume
- $303.44
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $8.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.240 | $4.08 | +$3.09 |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.930 | $2.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.205 | $1.58 | −$0.42 |
| Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.041 | $0.68 | −$2.32 |
| Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.84at 0.532Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on September 22?
- +$0.27at 0.757Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- +$0.25at 0.276Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
- +$0.09at 0.515Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
- +$0.08at 0.943Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on October 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 11:57 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.03 |
| 10-17 11:56 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.03 |
| 10-08 14:20 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $2.00 |
| 10-08 12:01 | Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft? | SELL | 0.41 | $1.84 |
| 10-08 11:01 | Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft? | SELL | 0.4 | $0.42 |
| 10-05 08:47 | Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 10-05 08:06 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on October 5? | SELL | 0.97 | $2.00 |
| 10-05 08:00 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.9699999951 | $2.00 |
| 10-04 08:02 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 4? | SELL | 0.75 | $0.53 |
| 10-04 08:01 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 4? | SELL | 0.87 | $1.16 |
| 10-04 08:01 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 4? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.00 |
| 10-04 06:49 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on October 4? | SELL | 0.89 | $1.85 |
| 10-04 06:24 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on October 4? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.00 |
| 10-04 06:03 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on October 4? | SELL | 0.99 | $2.04 |
| 10-04 05:30 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on October 4? | BUY | 0.9699999951 | $2.00 |