Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-06-30
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.15. down 0.35 over the period, from 0.51. Range 0.10 to 0.51. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.16	158	158
0.17	90	247
0.18	58	305
0.19	300	605
0.36	11	616
0.38	113	729
0.39	500	1,229
0.41	113	1,341
0.72	87	1,428
0.73	147	1,575
0.74	520	2,095
0.75	40	2,135

Spread0.01Mid0.15

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.15	246	246
0.14	50	296
0.13	244	540
0.11	117	657
0.10	521	1,178
0.08	44	1,222
0.07	97	1,319
0.01	82	1,401

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.85	246	246
0.86	50	296
0.87	244	540
0.89	117	657
0.90	521	1,178
0.92	44	1,222
0.93	97	1,319
0.99	82	1,401

Spread0.01Mid0.84

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.84	158	158
0.83	90	247
0.82	58	305
0.81	300	605
0.64	11	616
0.62	113	729
0.61	500	1,229
0.59	113	1,341
0.28	87	1,428
0.27	147	1,575
0.26	520	2,095
0.25	40	2,135

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
Mustafalafel	Yes	454
chwk	Yes	241.19
doudouc	Yes	100
0x659db5d7C035771e1b1b3243e544207BAE71a037-1744115964414	Yes	65.54
0xE8C428250693d7f1E588ba6F4666d02E68F0eA5c-1782008528190	Yes	50
Fihdrzgdd	Yes	42.77
Dr.PNL	Yes	38
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	22
balthazar	Yes	14
daniel122134	Yes	10.71
HosoTrader	Yes	2
SingletonFamilyFund	No	881
0x6196…6208	No	100
AJSV	No	60.11

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
13:31:01	SELL	Yes	0.161446	100	$16.14
09:03:45	BUY	Yes	0.18	66	$11.80
09:00:21	SELL	No	0.82	25	$20.23
06:37:37	BUY	Yes	0.1606747107	107	$17.23
06:33:51	BUY	Yes	0.1493072145	134	$20.00
23:26:43	BUY	Yes	0.1399999963	11	$1.50
14:12:31	SELL	Yes	0.13	20	$2.60
13:57:09	SELL	Yes	0.15	20	$3.00
13:43:49	SELL	Yes	0.12	20	$2.40
13:43:34	SELL	Yes	0.12	20	$2.40
13:08:28	SELL	No	0.8855	40	$35.42
13:08:27	SELL	No	0.89	120	$106.80
13:08:24	BUY	Yes	0.1	454	$45.40
10:25:00	SELL	Yes	0.093	20	$1.86
10:18:10	SELL	Yes	0.11	20	$2.20
10:14:19	SELL	Yes	0.1	20	$2.00
09:54:19	SELL	Yes	0.15	20	$3.00
09:42:43	SELL	Yes	0.1035013467	26	$2.69
09:41:55	BUY	No	0.7574687855	881	$667.33