PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Mustafalafel

0x8c0b637b43ccbd2069b0f789b8439777fdb4f0fb

Realised P&L
$45.1k
Volume
$4.97M
Markets traded
632
Open portfolio
$35.8k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded632
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration53.8% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.8040.885$4.4k+$402.01
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? · No0.4270.935$3.7k+$2.0k
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9800.989$2.5k+$21.25
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? · No0.9000.925$2.3k+$62.50
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? · No0.9100.895$2.2k−$37.50
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? · No0.8460.855$1.9k+$20.74
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7580.783$1.7k+$57.15
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? · No0.8900.967$1.3k+$101.98
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No0.8570.959$1.2k+$127.00
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No0.9200.969$968.50+$48.50
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8200.945$951.85+$125.91
Will over 68 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? · No0.9090.825$931.42−$95.50
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? · No0.8530.875$875.00+$22.50
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No0.9730.987$789.40+$11.17
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? · Yes0.2400.310$775.00+$175.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-07 17:05Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a piglin?SELL0.61$12.20
10-07 17:03Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a hoglin?BUY0.81$96.47
10-07 17:02Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a warden?SELL0.15$10.65
10-07 17:02Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a pillager again?SELL0.14$1.05
10-07 17:01Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a polar bear?SELL0.08$5.76
10-07 17:01Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to an elder guardian?SELL0.1$14.20
10-06 20:07Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a witch?SELL0.3$12.30
10-06 20:02Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by the void?SELL0.7861609549$204.17
10-06 19:56Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to an ender dragon?BUY0.4$33.84
10-06 17:11Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a ghast?BUY0.2924537201$49.61
10-06 17:08Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by lava again?BUY0.5970421297$149.37
10-06 16:40Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a blaze?BUY0.58$2.90
10-06 16:27Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a zombie again?BUY0.67$40.20
10-06 15:56Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?SELL0.80609375$206.36
10-06 15:42Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a vex?BUY0.88$352.00