PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Mustafalafel

0x8c0b637b43ccbd2069b0f789b8439777fdb4f0fb

Realised P&L
$38.6k
Volume
$4.39M
Markets traded
565
Open portfolio
$34.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded565
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.4101.000$5.9k+$3.5k
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? · No0.4270.923$3.8k+$2.0k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · No0.9170.935$3.4k+$64.80
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9800.982$2.5k+$3.75
Iran full airspace closure by September 30? · No0.9130.945$2.4k+$79.25
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? · No0.8900.875$1.2k$19.99
Will over 68 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? · No0.9090.956$1.1k+$51.84
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No0.8570.971$971.00+$113.50
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No0.9200.920$920.50+$0.50
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8200.885$891.42+$65.47
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · Yes0.2300.205$683.26$83.32
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.8380.423$654.08$640.72
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? · No0.7930.900$653.04+$77.41
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No0.9680.988$585.34+$11.95
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · Yes0.5980.655$368.08+$31.91

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 23:04Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?BUY0.5982133742$515.64
09-16 15:20Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?BUY0.23$27.72
09-16 14:59France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?BUY0.05$1.00
09-16 13:10Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.43$43.00
09-16 13:08Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.1$45.40
09-15 23:13Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.7933158015$693.83
09-15 23:08Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 7, 2026?BUY0.72$84.10
09-15 22:18Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.399$21.95
09-15 21:46Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.4010906212$638.28
09-15 19:39Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.3329070611$47.71
09-15 18:49Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?SELL0.3975981188$1.0k
09-15 18:31Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?SELL0.55$669.39
09-15 17:40Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.49$203.80
09-15 17:08Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.536$123.62
09-15 16:51Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.4908347644$246.37