Mustafalafel
0x8c0b637b43ccbd2069b0f789b8439777fdb4f0fb
- Realised P&L
- $38.6k
- Volume
- $4.39M
- Markets traded
- 565
- Open portfolio
- $34.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded565
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.4kat 0.044Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- +$5.7kat 0.239U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
- +$4.1kat 0.500Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?
- +$2.5kat 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
- +$2.2kat 0.067US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 23:04 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.5982133742 | $515.64 |
| 09-16 15:20 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.23 | $27.72 |
| 09-16 14:59 | France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 13:10 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.43 | $43.00 |
| 09-16 13:08 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $45.40 |
| 09-15 23:13 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.7933158015 | $693.83 |
| 09-15 23:08 | Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $84.10 |
| 09-15 22:18 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.399 | $21.95 |
| 09-15 21:46 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4010906212 | $638.28 |
| 09-15 19:39 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3329070611 | $47.71 |
| 09-15 18:49 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.3975981188 | $1.0k |
| 09-15 18:31 | Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15? | SELL | 0.55 | $669.39 |
| 09-15 17:40 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $203.80 |
| 09-15 17:08 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.536 | $123.62 |
| 09-15 16:51 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4908347644 | $246.37 |