PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Mustafalafel

0x8c0b637b43ccbd2069b0f789b8439777fdb4f0fb

Realised P&L
$9.8k
Volume
$2.72M
Markets traded
323
Open portfolio
$19.1k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded323
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration53.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? · Yes0.7330.735$4.7k+$10.35
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? · No0.9320.945$2.7k+$35.44
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No0.4690.465$2.3k$22.14
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? · Yes0.6130.630$1.4k+$38.70
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? · Yes0.6171.000$1.3k+$511.77
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No0.3450.350$997.50+$14.01
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8200.855$861.20+$35.25
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No0.9770.991$357.59+$5.05
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? · No0.0000.973$343.13+$343.13
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.3800.310$310.00$70.00
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? · Yes0.9770.982$245.38+$1.13
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? · No0.8620.925$238.70+$16.25
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No0.0000.405$202.50+$202.50
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? · Yes0.3430.260$195.00$62.50
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0010.002$187.50+$37.75

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 22:17US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?SELL0.48$98.40
08-02 22:11US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.43$195.90
08-02 22:04US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?BUY0.7487634666$2.4k
08-02 18:23US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?BUY0.72$2.7k
08-02 18:05Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?BUY0.589$294.50
08-02 12:50Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?SELL0.89$2.2k
08-02 12:39Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?BUY0.9$118.80
08-02 11:57US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?BUY0.37$726.69
08-02 11:33US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.48$6.84
08-01 22:11US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?BUY0.43$94.60
08-01 18:58Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?BUY0.7690909091$25.38
08-01 18:48Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?SELL0.715$23.59
08-01 17:56Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?BUY0.56$18.40
08-01 17:08Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?SELL0.61$132.06
08-01 13:49Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?SELL0.7548341926$1.3k