chwk
0x83563d1e668a868979898d0dca82a3f8042e7ad1
- Realised P&L
- $-743.58
- Volume
- $190.2k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $179.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.120 | $52.05 | −$8.68 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.155 | $37.38 | +$0.15 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.083 | $29.02 | +$9.02 |
| Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.230 | $25.89 | −$72.03 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.295 | $19.67 | −$0.33 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.515 | $15.37 | −$4.63 |
| Trump releases Epstein list today? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$208.26 |
| Will Trump say 'AI' or 'artificial intelligence' during the 2025 State of the Union? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$112.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$351.17at 0.299 Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?
- +$152.39at 0.113Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?
- +$121.52at 0.580Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?
- +$89.33at 0.540Will DOGE audit the IRS before May?
- +$37.96at 0.689Will Trump and Elon say "Department of Education" during their Feb 18 interview?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 06:37 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1606747107 | $17.23 |
| 09-17 06:35 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.0571968171 | $20.00 |
| 09-17 06:33 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1493072145 | $20.00 |
| 09-17 06:33 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.2999999985 | $20.00 |
| 09-17 06:32 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.669999995 | $20.00 |
| 09-17 06:27 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999933 | $97.92 |
| 09-04 00:32 | Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999981 | $60.73 |
| 03-05 04:35 | Will Trump say 'AI' or 'artificial intelligence' during the 2025 State of the Union? | BUY | 0.0090690476 | $7.75 |
| 03-05 04:34 | Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | SELL | 0.002 | $7.75 |
| 03-05 03:23 | Will Trump say 'AI' or 'artificial intelligence' during the 2025 State of the Union? | BUY | 0.2874699666 | $104.78 |
| 03-05 03:22 | Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? | SELL | 0.0546624603 | $31.32 |
| 03-05 03:22 | Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? | SELL | 0.11 | $73.46 |
| 03-01 00:08 | Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | BUY | 0.0043545957 | $16.87 |
| 02-28 04:51 | Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.99 |
| 02-28 04:50 | Trump releases Epstein list today? | BUY | 0.003 | $58.41 |