0x6196bd22ac82ca47c7d137a63345e8ebb0c36208
0x6196bd22ac82ca47c7d137a63345e8ebb0c36208
- Realised P&L
- $-547.80
- Volume
- $428.7k
- Markets traded
- 203
- Open portfolio
- $126.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded203
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.795 | $79.50 | −$6.50 |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.180 | $36.00 | +$4.00 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.525 | $10.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026? · No | 0.335 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$124.81at 0.072Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?
- +$85.62at 0.469Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
- +$83.48at 0.070Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
- +$70.00at 0.140Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
- +$69.27at 0.001World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 16:43 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $12.40 |
| 10-01 12:02 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $6.50 |
| 09-30 20:27 | Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026? | BUY | 0.3347767792 | $3.00 |
| 09-30 20:08 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.247 | $6.62 |
| 09-30 20:06 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0776071503 | $15.80 |
| 09-30 16:14 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $5.50 |
| 09-30 10:08 | Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $13.00 |
| 09-30 10:08 | Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $21.75 |
| 09-30 10:08 | Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $30.00 |
| 09-30 09:24 | Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $4.57 |
| 09-30 09:13 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $10.25 |
| 09-29 22:29 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 09-29 22:01 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 09-29 21:43 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 09-29 21:32 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |