Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.15. down 0.02 over the period, from 0.17. Range 0.10 to 0.17. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.16	169	169
0.17	380	549
0.18	431	980
0.20	30	1,010
0.25	150	1,160
0.58	20	1,180
0.77	800	1,980
0.99	95	2,075

Spread0.01Mid0.15

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.15	40	40
0.14	150	190
0.13	96	286
0.12	165	452
0.11	20	472
0.10	1,374	1,845
0.09	140	1,985
0.08	49	2,034
0.07	127	2,161
0.06	163	2,324
0.05	150	2,474
0.04	215	2,689

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.85	40	40
0.86	150	190
0.87	96	286
0.88	165	452
0.89	20	472
0.90	1,374	1,845
0.91	140	1,985
0.92	49	2,034
0.93	127	2,161
0.94	163	2,324
0.95	150	2,474
0.96	215	2,689

Spread0.01Mid0.84

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.84	169	169
0.83	380	549
0.82	431	980
0.80	30	1,010
0.75	150	1,160
0.42	20	1,180
0.23	800	1,980
0.01	95	2,075

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
vinii	Yes	1,322.02
Dr.PNL	Yes	481.12
molodoyy	Yes	408.19
tradetosurvive1	Yes	342.91
Arman2	Yes	311.87
ithinkthisisgod	Yes	240
0x888888888	Yes	150
TruongMyLan	Yes	150
from00	Yes	100
Fihdrzgdd	Yes	59.34
HerrieDavis	Yes	51.75
0xf45f68DF2146a915496baA96980eD0933835Dbfd-1762867485179	Yes	49.99
Johnny-Worker	Yes	40
AJSV	Yes	38.38
Miguel262144	Yes	33
kisadrakon	Yes	23.08
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	22.42
SmartBoyBilly	Yes	20.1
thecaricature	Yes	20.01
zhanglu	Yes	20

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
15:02:27	SELL	No	0.83	20	$16.60
14:03:32	SELL	No	0.844646	50	$42.23
14:02:17	BUY	Yes	0.128257688	312	$40.00
14:02:17	BUY	Yes	0.14	44	$6.16
13:20:20	BUY	Yes	0.12	20	$2.40
13:20:18	BUY	Yes	0.1199999982	22	$2.60
13:20:17	BUY	Yes	0.12	20	$2.40
13:20:17	BUY	Yes	0.12	20	$2.40
13:20:17	BUY	Yes	0.11	240	$26.40
13:20:17	BUY	Yes	0.12	20	$2.40
13:20:17	BUY	Yes	0.12	40	$4.80
13:20:17	BUY	Yes	0.12	20	$2.40
03:19:48	SELL	No	0.89	20	$17.80
20:15:28	SELL	No	0.89	417	$371.08
08:57:27	SELL	Yes	0.1	20	$2.00
08:33:25	SELL	Yes	0.1	1	$0.10
06:18:28	BUY	Yes	0.1299999948	23	$3.00
00:40:52	SELL	Yes	0.12	36	$4.32
00:33:06	BUY	No	0.87	547	$475.68
22:32:15	SELL	Yes	0.12	40	$4.74
22:31:34	SELL	Yes	0.13	50	$6.50
21:56:42	SELL	Yes	0.13	10	$1.24
21:51:31	SELL	Yes	0.13	12	$1.50
21:49:24	SELL	Yes	0.13	29	$3.74
21:41:31	SELL	No	0.8795652174	184	$161.84