SmartBoyBilly
0x1491f3faea8f55eb683eea438d4d6367eb84fd70
- Realised P&L
- $-4.9k
- Volume
- $96.7k
- Markets traded
- 1,199
- Open portfolio
- $10.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,199
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration8.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$162.98at 0.160Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?
- +$154.06at 0.626Will Dynamite be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?
- +$112.00at 0.720Will the announcers say "VAR" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?
- +$99.80at 0.001Will the AQI at the World Cup final be 120 or higher?
- +$98.00at 0.510Will the announcers say "Zlatan" or "Ibrahimovic" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 01:08 | NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 21? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.20 |
| 07-18 14:12 | Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 1? | SELL | 0.26 | $15.60 |
| 07-18 02:42 | Will Daisies be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show? | SELL | 0.25 | $3.99 |
| 07-17 22:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | SELL | 0.214 | $42.80 |