PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

SmartBoyBilly

0x1491f3faea8f55eb683eea438d4d6367eb84fd70

Realised P&L
$-4.9k
Volume
$96.7k
Markets traded
1,199
Open portfolio
$10.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-5.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,199
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration8.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? · No0.9430.976$1.2k+$40.30
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.75T in 2026? · No0.9400.935$280.50$1.50
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31? · Yes0.5800.650$260.00+$28.00
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31? · Yes0.6900.445$222.50$122.50
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31? · Yes0.6000.525$210.00$30.00
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31? · Yes0.4700.500$200.00+$12.00
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by December 31? · Yes0.7000.400$200.00$150.00
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? · No0.8500.815$162.98$7.02
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · No0.6490.765$153.87+$23.42
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? · No0.6860.705$150.25+$4.02
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31? · Yes0.4800.325$147.80$70.49
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother season 28? · No0.8800.730$146.00$30.00
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? · No0.9400.969$111.66+$3.29
Will Viktor Blom cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event? · No0.9970.998$100.75+$0.05
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? · Yes0.4600.503$100.68+$8.68

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-20 01:08NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 21?SELL0.001$0.20
07-18 14:12Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 1?SELL0.26$15.60
07-18 02:42Will Daisies be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?SELL0.25$3.99
07-17 22:10Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?SELL0.214$42.80