Arman2
0x9453a389c73df7991249d9f2c6e2c854157b1a48
- Realised P&L
- $-12.6k
- Volume
- $3.04M
- Markets traded
- 646
- Open portfolio
- $2.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded646
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.130 | $828.66 | +$16.65 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · Yes | 0.286 | 0.315 | $695.54 | +$63.97 |
| CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30? · No | 0.611 | 0.395 | $353.48 | −$193.50 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.630 | $153.30 | +$7.30 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.385 | $101.32 | +$1.32 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.128 | 0.155 | $48.34 | +$8.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.0kat 0.346Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
- +$3.1kat 0.967Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.407Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.373Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.5kat 0.795Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 14:02 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.128257688 | $40.00 |
| 09-21 14:01 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999996 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 14:01 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5999999992 | $146.00 |
| 09-21 13:35 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $130.00 |
| 09-21 13:21 | CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30? | BUY | 0.52 | $26.00 |
| 09-21 13:03 | CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30? | BUY | 0.53 | $29.15 |
| 09-21 08:49 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.1297550562 | $400.85 |
| 09-21 06:30 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.12490985 | $249.82 |
| 09-21 02:47 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.29 | $58.00 |
| 09-20 22:54 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.28 | $89.94 |
| 09-20 22:45 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.27 | $270.00 |
| 09-20 22:26 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $71.71 |
| 09-20 19:25 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.11 | $26.21 |
| 09-20 18:46 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | SELL | 0.08 | $40.30 |
| 09-20 18:45 | CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30? | BUY | 0.582034531 | $100.00 |