Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://agi.safe.ai/
Rewards: 40 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.47. down 0.01 over the period, from 0.48. Range 0.31 to 0.58. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.64	181	181
0.65	50	231
0.81	42	273
0.82	40	313
0.83	20	333
0.84	6	339
0.89	9	348
0.90	18	366
0.91	30	396
0.92	7	403
0.93	14	417
0.96	25	442

Spread0.22Mid0.53

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.42	13	13
0.41	5	18
0.40	58	75
0.39	42	117
0.33	156	273
0.31	80	353
0.30	7	360
0.22	90	450
0.11	20	470
0.10	81	551
0.07	8	559
0.06	177	736

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.58	13	13
0.59	5	18
0.60	58	75
0.61	42	117
0.67	156	273
0.69	80	353
0.70	7	360
0.78	90	450
0.89	20	470
0.90	81	551
0.93	8	559
0.94	177	736

Spread0.22Mid0.47

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.36	181	181
0.35	50	231
0.19	42	273
0.18	40	313
0.17	20	333
0.16	6	339
0.11	9	348
0.10	18	366
0.09	30	396
0.08	7	403
0.07	14	417
0.04	25	442

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
balthazar	Yes	1,204.52
troim	Yes	800
pragmat1sm	Yes	660.14
Computerdude111	Yes	644.53
Milksheen	Yes	362.38
tradetosurvive1	Yes	134.99
helpinghans	Yes	100
Joebidenswife	Yes	95.24
AJSV	Yes	89.19
0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876	Yes	80.32
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	79.67
Mustafalafel	Yes	50
0x8Df92602EC9c454E8099D9dc4A3F0d21DaA0468C-1766855317883	Yes	41.82
ImSweating	Yes	30
televisionloud	Yes	26.88
SharkyLV	Yes	17.54
j.shi	Yes	16.13
PlaceHolderName	Yes	12.5
amaury0839	Yes	10.87
WilliMekkit	Yes	9.55

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
07:00:03	SELL	Yes	0.49	21	$10.29
06:59:53	SELL	Yes	0.5011111111	180	$90.20
06:46:39	SELL	No	0.49	40	$19.60
05:46:11	SELL	No	0.49	40	$19.60
05:43:32	BUY	Yes	0.5	20	$10.00
05:43:32	SELL	No	0.51	139	$70.89
05:37:38	BUY	No	0.53	40	$21.20
05:16:14	SELL	No	0.53	40	$21.20
05:12:14	SELL	No	0.54	40	$21.60
05:12:11	SELL	No	0.55	160	$88.00
02:50:09	SELL	No	0.58	40	$23.20
02:16:30	SELL	No	0.5954545455	88	$52.40
01:48:47	SELL	Yes	0.39	40	$15.60
01:48:39	SELL	Yes	0.4	80	$32.00
00:15:35	SELL	No	0.52	40	$20.80
22:39:42	SELL	No	0.57	2	$0.98
22:39:41	SELL	No	0.57	74	$42.41
22:34:05	SELL	Yes	0.41	40	$16.40
22:28:42	SELL	Yes	0.41	23	$9.43
22:28:24	BUY	No	0.57	57	$32.49
22:28:24	BUY	No	0.56	500	$279.84
22:28:24	BUY	No	0.61	40	$24.40
22:28:24	BUY	No	0.57	40	$22.80
22:28:24	BUY	No	0.57	43	$24.51
17:40:50	SELL	No	0.53	60	$31.80