Joebidenswife
0x42e1073faada3b581c3cfce5e725628ad601a1d2
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $116.4k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $214.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.241 | 0.075 | $169.14 | −$375.15 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.475 | $45.24 | +$25.24 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET · Down | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.347Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$624.00at 0.354Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$164.15at 0.275Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$157.41at 0.108Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
- +$129.50at 0.880Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 15:00 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.962 | $96.20 |
| 07-25 08:33 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.2099999922 | $20.00 |
| 07-06 10:32 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $89.00 |
| 07-06 10:31 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $80.00 |
| 07-04 12:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET | BUY | 0.0299999943 | $5.00 |
| 07-04 07:27 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $42.00 |
| 07-01 14:12 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.25 | $100.00 |
| 07-01 07:29 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | SELL | 0.961 | $144.15 |
| 06-26 09:07 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.26 | $80.60 |
| 06-26 09:06 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? | SELL | 0.1452086444 | $65.34 |
| 06-25 06:48 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? | BUY | 0.11 | $49.50 |
| 06-25 06:48 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? | BUY | 0.87 | $261.00 |
| 06-17 09:07 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.59 | $88.50 |
| 05-10 12:41 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.3299999812 | $10.00 |
| 05-08 17:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $394.14 |