PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876

0x2b670a311561dcaf741d8155451774d3fa7fb814

Realised P&L
$24.7k
Volume
$4.54M
Markets traded
403
Open portfolio
$44.9k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded403
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration56.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? · No0.2440.760$10.7k+$7.3k
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes0.4390.570$6.8k+$1.6k
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · No0.5150.571$5.7k+$555.11
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.1100.188$3.6k+$1.5k
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.2140.305$2.8k+$824.35
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? · Yes0.3040.531$1.9k+$817.66
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? · Yes0.2730.630$1.7k+$950.98
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0850.106$1.3k+$271.47
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? · No0.0700.101$1.3k+$394.52
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? · OpenAI0.1000.080$1.2k−$315.95
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? · No0.2710.455$786.29+$318.13
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? · Yes0.4550.240$647.08−$578.65
Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or below $15 in 2026? · No0.4350.605$516.67+$145.25
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? · No0.3080.890$453.27+$296.29
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes0.5500.675$424.82+$78.34

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 17:59Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?SELL0.31$31.00
11-01 17:58Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?SELL0.31$177.20
11-01 16:16Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?BUY0.3386702128$203.74
11-01 16:14Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?BUY0.3271428571$22.90
11-01 03:04Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?SELL0.009$14.81
10-30 14:33Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?BUY0.046$233.15
10-30 12:01Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?SELL0.0522071504$62.06
10-27 21:18Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?BUY0.061$0.93
10-26 13:24Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?BUY0.4116505098$295.12
10-26 13:12Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?BUY0.7474672489$8.56
10-26 13:09Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?BUY0.7599550225$30.41
10-26 13:09Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?BUY0.6570998901$65.78
10-26 01:54Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.0019037179$10.53
10-26 01:27Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.1364159877$195.05
10-26 00:13Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.001$69.85