Computerdude111
0xf186449663da29a6eb7e2a14a62d2c5fc2ac09b0
- Realised P&L
- $33.44
- Volume
- $3.5k
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $391.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? · Yes | 0.954 | 0.925 | $133.34 | −$4.25 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? · Yes | 0.895 | 0.815 | $107.04 | −$10.59 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? · No | 0.879 | 0.865 | $44.72 | −$0.73 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.200 | $36.30 | +$6.30 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.060 | $30.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.100 | $20.46 | −$9.54 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher? · Yes | 0.979 | 0.969 | $19.80 | −$0.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.45at 0.802Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before July 31, 2026?
- +$22.88at 0.634Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
- +$9.07at 0.529Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
- +$7.04at 0.936Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$4.00at 0.020Will Trump say "Blockade" during Fox interview on Wednesday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 17:08 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 08-03 16:56 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | BUY | 0.94 | $37.59 |
| 08-03 16:26 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.85 | $25.24 |
| 08-03 02:21 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.93 | $17.39 |
| 08-03 02:20 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.88 | $11.10 |
| 08-03 02:19 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | SELL | 0.73 | $27.98 |
| 08-03 02:17 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.9068089344 | $45.00 |
| 08-03 02:11 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.8799999988 | $30.00 |
| 08-03 02:11 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.9 | $30.00 |
| 08-03 02:11 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | BUY | 0.96 | $100.00 |
| 08-03 02:10 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher? | BUY | 0.9786525778 | $20.00 |
| 07-28 04:09 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | BUY | 0.06 | $30.00 |
| 07-28 04:08 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.1466352068 | $30.00 |
| 07-28 04:08 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.1652946093 | $30.00 |
| 07-28 04:08 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.4099999954 | $25.00 |