j.shi
0x5da5c7f4d27cc68cfade220119918df60f90f339
- Realised P&L
- $-22.19
- Volume
- $650.18
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $39.17
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.635 | $27.02 | +$7.02 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.475 | $7.66 | −$2.34 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.435 | 0.195 | $4.48 | −$5.52 |
| US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.12at 0.830Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- +$0.03at 0.961Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- +$0.02at 0.997Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?
- +$0.00at 0.200Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on December 31?
- +$-0.06at 0.960Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 08:31 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 08:31 | Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | SELL | 0.261 | $3.71 |
| 09-25 08:30 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1081295372 | $9.53 |
| 09-25 02:57 | Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.2889999855 | $4.11 |
| 09-25 02:54 | US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30? | BUY | 0.0760058985 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 02:54 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4347968625 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 02:54 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1059417354 | $9.34 |
| 09-25 02:51 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on December 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 02:49 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.6199999864 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 02:45 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.956 | $9.97 |
| 09-25 02:45 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.74 | $7.78 |
| 09-25 02:45 | Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $5.12 |
| 09-25 02:44 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.962 | $30.02 |
| 09-22 05:21 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $8.00 |
| 09-22 04:58 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9609999935 | $30.00 |