Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Rewards: 40 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.46. up 0.09 over the period, from 0.36. Range 0.25 to 0.55. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.46	59	59
0.47	19	78
0.48	100	178
0.64	158	336
0.65	100	436
0.78	40	476
0.79	50	526
0.82	36	561
0.83	159	721
0.84	6	727
0.86	143	869
0.87	500	1,369

Spread0.01Mid0.46

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.45	6	6
0.44	40	46
0.39	11	57
0.35	80	137
0.19	37	174
0.18	20	193
0.17	367	561
0.16	217	778
0.15	185	962
0.14	64	1,026
0.13	285	1,311
0.12	180	1,491

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.55	6	6
0.56	40	46
0.61	11	57
0.65	80	137
0.81	37	174
0.82	20	193
0.83	367	561
0.84	217	778
0.85	185	962
0.86	64	1,026
0.87	285	1,311
0.88	180	1,491

Spread0.01Mid0.55

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.54	59	59
0.53	19	78
0.52	100	178
0.36	158	336
0.35	100	436
0.22	40	476
0.21	50	526
0.18	36	561
0.17	159	721
0.16	6	727
0.14	143	869
0.13	500	1,369

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
418Imateapot	Yes	285.94
rocky42017	Yes	284.9
pragmat1sm	Yes	248.82
tradetosurvive1	Yes	237
folioquant	Yes	190
BAO95889	Yes	171.51
conherence	Yes	135.45
kickoffu	Yes	90
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	59.99
0x14117f3428c9Fc84b57cF7961b5e9E5F6Dce2410-1773994627349	Yes	45
Roguer	Yes	40
feeder-of-markets	Yes	40
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes	40
Miguel262144	Yes	33
Praescientia	Yes	25
XLCOBRA	Yes	20
0xFf12c076486622f6492023399a4E84d46dFbcDC4-1771515289272	Yes	18.18
0x1022078fACb4F023e66afF7c604903d5B59d614A-1768811941131	Yes	7.14
0x4dc3…4702	Yes	5
LS-ship	Yes	3.74

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
23:40:25	SELL	Yes	0.45	0	$0.18
23:40:24	SELL	Yes	0.44	40	$17.60
23:35:13	SELL	Yes	0.45	0	$0.18
23:35:10	SELL	Yes	0.44	40	$17.60
23:34:51	SELL	Yes	0.45	0	$0.18
23:34:48	SELL	Yes	0.44	40	$17.60
23:24:00	SELL	Yes	0.45	0	$0.18
23:23:57	SELL	Yes	0.44	40	$17.60
23:22:42	SELL	Yes	0.45	0	$0.18
23:22:40	SELL	Yes	0.44	40	$17.60
23:17:07	SELL	Yes	0.45	1	$0.23
23:17:06	SELL	Yes	0.44	50	$22.00
23:09:36	SELL	Yes	0.45	1	$0.23
23:09:33	SELL	Yes	0.44	50	$22.00
23:06:19	SELL	Yes	0.45	0	$0.18
23:06:18	SELL	Yes	0.44	40	$17.60
23:00:30	SELL	Yes	0.45	0	$0.18
23:00:28	SELL	Yes	0.44	40	$17.60
22:53:19	SELL	Yes	0.45	0	$0.18
22:53:18	SELL	Yes	0.44	40	$17.60
22:47:42	SELL	Yes	0.45	0	$0.18
22:47:39	SELL	Yes	0.44	40	$17.60
22:40:22	SELL	Yes	0.44	0	$0.18
22:40:19	SELL	Yes	0.43	40	$17.20
22:32:36	BUY	No	0.56	5	$2.81