0x4dc3abdf5035e9952d7efaa55934daa457d14702
0x4dc3abdf5035e9952d7efaa55934daa457d14702
- Realised P&L
- $63.77
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $64.64
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.23at 0.161Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?
- +$21.21at 0.120Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
- +$14.34at 0.270Will Abigail Anderson be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?
- +$11.85at 0.210Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- +$11.35at 0.201Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 23:18 | Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.65 |
| 10-29 17:44 | Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.00 |
| 10-29 17:43 | Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.00 |
| 10-29 17:43 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.44 |
| 10-29 17:43 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.03 |
| 10-29 17:42 | Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.01 |
| 10-29 17:39 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | SELL | 0.761 | $0.28 |
| 10-29 17:39 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $0.08 |
| 10-29 17:37 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | SELL | 0.766 | $1.70 |
| 10-29 17:37 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.02 |
| 10-29 05:45 | Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $2.21 |
| 10-13 18:53 | Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.70 |
| 09-22 17:39 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.54 | $2.45 |
| 09-21 02:29 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.66 | $0.14 |
| 09-21 02:25 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.66 | $0.17 |