418Imateapot
0xf2ddbbff7bc5193c5a17c9320886965b478482d3
- Realised P&L
- $-157.09
- Volume
- $519.6k
- Markets traded
- 393
- Open portfolio
- $129.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded393
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes | 0.363 | 0.345 | $98.65 | −$5.26 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.176 | 0.195 | $30.36 | +$2.99 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.884 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$101.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.006Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.086Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$529.93at 0.194Will 'Solo Leveling' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025?
- +$266.47at 0.018Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on February 26?
- +$194.81at 0.026Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 14:19 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.38 | $30.40 |
| 09-17 14:05 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.22 | $31.24 |
| 09-17 12:37 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.1788888889 | $8.05 |
| 09-17 11:33 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.18 | $5.62 |
| 09-17 11:33 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.18 | $11.02 |
| 09-17 11:33 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.1724964114 | $27.64 |
| 09-17 08:08 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.39 | $15.68 |
| 09-17 08:07 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.2488276388 | $39.18 |
| 09-17 08:06 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.4 | $1.80 |
| 09-17 07:22 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.01 |
| 09-17 07:22 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.15 | $18.93 |
| 09-17 07:20 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.43 | $0.15 |
| 09-14 08:20 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.34 | $3.40 |
| 09-14 08:19 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.33 | $112.20 |
| 09-14 08:19 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | SELL | 0.792186602 | $89.87 |