418Imateapot
0xf2ddbbff7bc5193c5a17c9320886965b478482d3
- Realised P&L
- $29.52
- Volume
- $506.3k
- Markets traded
- 425
- Open portfolio
- $154.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded425
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? · Yes | 0.125 | 0.115 | $54.06 | −$4.93 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · No | 0.240 | 0.265 | $53.00 | +$5.00 |
| Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? · No | 0.068 | 0.080 | $36.00 | +$5.25 |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.560 | $11.20 | −$1.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$529.93at 0.194Will 'Solo Leveling' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025?
- +$266.47at 0.018Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on February 26?
- +$179.02at 0.009Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$158.60at 0.443Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on July 31?
- +$153.06at 0.004Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 17:11 | Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.08 | $4.00 |
| 11-02 17:10 | Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.08 | $4.00 |
| 11-02 17:06 | Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.07 | $3.50 |
| 11-02 17:06 | Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.75 |
| 11-02 17:05 | Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 11-02 17:04 | Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.06 | $1.50 |
| 11-02 17:04 | Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.06 | $9.00 |
| 10-30 12:12 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.25 | $50.00 |
| 10-29 08:16 | Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $7.5B? | BUY | 0.15 | $0.22 |
| 10-29 08:15 | Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Data Center & AI revenue be above $6.5B? | BUY | 0.61 | $12.20 |
| 10-28 14:04 | Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $12.60 |
| 10-28 14:02 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $40.00 |
| 10-28 08:07 | Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $6.5B? | BUY | 0.46 | $9.25 |
| 10-27 11:03 | Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $6B? | BUY | 0.74 | $14.80 |
| 10-27 11:03 | Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $5.5B? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |