folioquant
0xeb526f42dc37f1a86e7fe97019b1bfe1ac8c67cc
- Realised P&L
- $-2.5k
- Volume
- $963.3k
- Markets traded
- 536
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded536
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.504Ethereum Up or Down on December 5?
- +$490.20at 0.010Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?
- +$395.01at 0.937Ethereum Up or Down on December 4?
- +$218.57at 0.591Ethereum Up or Down on December 9?
- +$194.59at 0.129Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 08:18 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.999 | $134.18 |
| 10-14 03:28 | Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.9353528028 | $159.02 |
| 10-14 00:32 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | SELL | 0.94 | $11.66 |
| 10-14 00:26 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | SELL | 0.99 | $99.47 |
| 10-07 17:06 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | SELL | 0.34 | $102.00 |
| 10-06 12:09 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $23.50 |
| 10-04 07:36 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.67 | $20.10 |
| 10-02 15:52 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.82 | $113.86 |
| 10-01 23:50 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.9022222222 | $81.20 |
| 10-01 23:09 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 10-01 23:08 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.87 | $17.40 |
| 10-01 23:05 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | SELL | 0.931 | $27.93 |
| 10-01 23:04 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | SELL | 0.931 | $21.16 |
| 10-01 23:02 | Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $5.70 |
| 10-01 23:00 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | SELL | 0.943173913 | $108.46 |