PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

folioquant

0xeb526f42dc37f1a86e7fe97019b1bfe1ac8c67cc

Realised P&L
$-2.5k
Volume
$963.3k
Markets traded
536
Open portfolio
$3.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded536
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration9.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes0.7980.725$1.2k−$120.14
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes0.5720.415$684.35−$259.37
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5000.240$385.14−$417.87
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · No0.4370.230$297.88−$268.20
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2400.265$212.00+$19.74
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4330.155$168.64−$302.68
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? · Yes0.8960.992$96.77+$9.29
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes0.4600.355$71.00−$21.00
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? · Yes0.3660.150$61.40−$88.51
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? · Yes0.7510.690$55.25−$4.90
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.8680.760$53.20−$7.58
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.4100.190$47.50−$55.00
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? · Yes0.1020.085$46.50−$9.46
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1500.210$45.36+$12.96
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.1120.085$42.50−$13.48

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-14 08:18Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?SELL0.999$134.18
10-14 03:28Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?BUY0.9353528028$159.02
10-14 00:32Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?SELL0.94$11.66
10-14 00:26Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?SELL0.99$99.47
10-07 17:06Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?SELL0.34$102.00
10-06 12:09Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?SELL0.22$23.50
10-04 07:36Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?BUY0.67$20.10
10-02 15:52Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?SELL0.82$113.86
10-01 23:50Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?BUY0.9022222222$81.20
10-01 23:09Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.86$17.20
10-01 23:08Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?BUY0.87$17.40
10-01 23:05Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?SELL0.931$27.93
10-01 23:04Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?SELL0.931$21.16
10-01 23:02Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?SELL0.19$5.70
10-01 23:00Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?SELL0.943173913$108.46