Roguer
0x1258d4bc29c950ebadd873a5bfd314b488b5e038
- Realised P&L
- $-319.79
- Volume
- $107.8k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $49.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.685 | $20.55 | +$1.35 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 180m? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.745 | $14.90 | −$0.30 |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.919 | $13.79 | −$0.01 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.15 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.98 |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.80 |
| Pistons vs. Magic · Magic | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$380.00 |
| Lakers vs. Pelicans · Pelicans | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
| Cavaliers vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
| Mavericks vs. Kings · Kings | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.670Grizzlies vs. Lakers
- +$377.08at 0.75076ers vs. Celtics
- +$125.00at 0.530Raptors vs. Cavaliers
- +$119.00at 0.300Rockets vs. Trail Blazers
- +$110.40at 0.310Mavericks vs. Jazz
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 10:29 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 180m? | BUY | 0.76 | $15.20 |
| 07-31 09:18 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.97 | $19.40 |
| 07-24 10:51 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.938 | $18.76 |
| 07-18 05:20 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $13.80 |
| 07-18 04:01 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster? | SELL | 0.981 | $14.71 |
| 07-08 15:00 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster? | BUY | 0.989 | $14.83 |
| 06-24 13:59 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? | BUY | 0.18 | $10.80 |
| 06-16 06:37 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? | BUY | 0.97 | $9.70 |
| 06-16 06:36 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.87 | $7.57 |
| 06-09 07:16 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.79 | $15.80 |
| 05-20 06:31 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.64 | $51.20 |
| 05-02 02:11 | Cavaliers vs. Raptors | SELL | 0.39 | $403.64 |
| 05-02 00:30 | Pistons vs. Magic | SELL | 0.12 | $120.00 |
| 05-02 00:21 | Pistons vs. Magic | BUY | 0.08 | $80.00 |
| 05-01 07:30 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.0k |