PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Sign in

Traders

Roguer

0x1258d4bc29c950ebadd873a5bfd314b488b5e038

Realised P&L
$-319.79
Volume
$107.8k
Markets traded
43
Open portfolio
$49.24

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded43
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample40 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)47.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration41.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? · Yes0.6400.685$20.55+$1.35
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 180m? · Yes0.7600.745$14.90$0.30
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? · No0.9200.919$13.79$0.01
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No0.8100.000$0.00$12.15
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0660.000$0.00$1.98
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00$10.80
Pistons vs. Magic · Magic0.7600.000$0.00$380.00
Lakers vs. Pelicans · Pelicans0.3400.000$0.00$10.20
Cavaliers vs. Pacers · Pacers0.3400.000$0.00$10.20
Mavericks vs. Kings · Kings0.3400.000$0.00$10.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-05 10:29Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 180m?BUY0.76$15.20
07-31 09:18Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?BUY0.97$19.40
07-24 10:51Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?BUY0.938$18.76
07-18 05:20Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026?BUY0.92$13.80
07-18 04:01Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster?SELL0.981$14.71
07-08 15:00Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster?BUY0.989$14.83
06-24 13:59Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?BUY0.18$10.80
06-16 06:37Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?BUY0.97$9.70
06-16 06:36Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?SELL0.87$7.57
06-09 07:16Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?SELL0.79$15.80
05-20 06:31Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?BUY0.64$51.20
05-02 02:11Cavaliers vs. RaptorsSELL0.39$403.64
05-02 00:30Pistons vs. MagicSELL0.12$120.00
05-02 00:21Pistons vs. MagicBUY0.08$80.00
05-01 07:30Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?BUY0.998$2.0k