Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-10-31
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.011. up 0.004 over the period, from 0.007. Range 0.004 to 0.015. 170 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.013	366	366
0.014	4,219	4,585
0.015	52	4,637
0.016	2,294	6,931
0.017	3,019	9,950
0.018	2,907	12,857
0.019	119	12,976
0.020	200	13,176
0.021	300	13,476
0.023	85	13,561
0.024	1,500	15,061
0.027	938	15,999

Spread0.003Mid0.011

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.010	1,640	1,640
0.009	143	1,782
0.008	1,000	2,782
0.007	2,414	5,196
0.006	3,590	8,787
0.005	10,927	19,714
0.004	17,669	37,383
0.003	61,299	98,681
0.002	20,899	119,580
0.001	68,338	187,918

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.990	1,640	1,640
0.991	143	1,782
0.992	1,000	2,782
0.993	2,414	5,196
0.994	3,590	8,787
0.995	10,927	19,714
0.996	17,669	37,383
0.997	61,299	98,681
0.998	20,899	119,580
0.999	68,338	187,918

Spread0.003Mid0.988

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.987	366	366
0.986	4,219	4,585
0.985	52	4,637
0.984	2,294	6,931
0.983	3,019	9,950
0.982	2,907	12,857
0.981	119	12,976
0.980	200	13,176
0.979	300	13,476
0.977	85	13,561
0.976	1,500	15,061
0.973	938	15,999

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
jozeslemsek	Yes	12,425.19
randombyte	Yes	9,999.97
rewardbots	Yes	9,204.56
bmtr	Yes	7,962.4
fiter	Yes	6,650
healggy	Yes	5,979.3
petehegseth	Yes	4,929.39
spongebob0	Yes	4,893.98
paprikc	Yes	4,260.68
pantomime	Yes	4,161.49
BabyGroot	Yes	4,099.99
bigboystan	Yes	3,634.07
87q35hg42875gh42901758	Yes	3,532.82
Wojtek	Yes	3,093.31
cigarettes	Yes	3,078.73
0x4c0EdbAb0ea9A05A4E01140478BDfFd2194F231E-1761706141471	Yes	3,059.69
AnimalEater	Yes	2,500.01
0x650E13Fca69697bd78D2B4B4C1871c6043cD44Ad-1747433979564	Yes	2,400
rationalistYIMBY	Yes	2,260.03
Ugcdr56y6t	Yes	2,158.39

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
16:39:29	BUY	No	0.99	5	$5.30
15:51:27	BUY	No	0.99	10	$10.00
15:17:20	BUY	No	0.99	8	$8.12
14:55:42	BUY	No	0.99	8	$8.12
13:25:12	SELL	Yes	0.01	218	$2.18
13:21:41	SELL	No	0.988	1	$1.05
10:01:56	BUY	Yes	0.0119999999	83	$1.00
08:38:56	BUY	No	0.99	5	$4.95
08:37:43	BUY	No	0.99	5	$4.95
08:36:37	BUY	No	0.99	5	$4.95
08:35:29	BUY	No	0.99	5	$4.95
08:35:02	BUY	No	0.9899999995	95	$94.00
01:00:34	SELL	Yes	0.01	63	$0.63
19:59:07	SELL	Yes	0.0109729778	2,302	$25.26
19:32:57	BUY	Yes	0.013	500	$6.50
18:05:07	BUY	Yes	0.0129483748	772	$10.00
16:14:08	BUY	Yes	0.012	83	$1.00
16:02:52	SELL	Yes	0.01	130	$1.30
14:03:59	BUY	Yes	0.011	200	$2.20
10:37:17	BUY	Yes	0.0122640815	815	$10.00
09:57:29	BUY	No	0.991	10	$9.91
07:24:59	BUY	No	0.9909998713	8	$7.50
02:29:08	BUY	Yes	0.0129613788	2,559	$33.16
02:27:08	BUY	Yes	0.01	501	$5.01
02:02:24	BUY	No	0.992	5	$5.30