Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends: 2026-10-13
Resolves by: https://www.nobelprize.org/
Rewards: 50 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.07. down 0.18 over the period, from 0.26. Range 0.06 to 0.26. 130 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.08	450	450
0.09	265	715
0.10	108	822
0.11	181	1,003
0.12	143	1,146
0.13	133	1,279
0.49	14	1,292
0.50	14	1,306
0.55	16	1,322
0.57	16	1,338
0.65	20	1,358
0.67	21	1,379

Spread0.02Mid0.07

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.06	350	350
0.05	88	438
0.04	192	629
0.03	427	1,057
0.02	186	1,243
0.01	193	1,436

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.94	350	350
0.95	88	438
0.96	192	629
0.97	427	1,057
0.98	186	1,243
0.99	193	1,436

Spread0.02Mid0.93

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.92	450	450
0.91	265	715
0.90	108	822
0.89	181	1,003
0.88	143	1,146
0.87	133	1,279
0.51	14	1,292
0.50	14	1,306
0.45	16	1,322
0.43	16	1,338
0.35	20	1,358
0.33	21	1,379

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
Obamacare	Yes	109.13
chessplayer	Yes	100
PragueSizeLord	Yes	62.5
Dr.PNL	Yes	60.65
netpeople	Yes	42.86
0x245Ec0b8949F107E7566EE87890275E03e0e0f2e-1760696182626	Yes	28.57
jaredsub	Yes	25
cassano99	Yes	14.29
Tenebrus7	No	138.34
0x80fe…d375	No	80.65
tradetosurvive1	No	62.7
2B9S	No	50
0x817969bF0B89102F99472BCC83F47EEb274DB095-1759870239799	No	26.6
Sp0rtBaby	No	23.7
bufogodis	No	22.91
simplythenextone	No	19.99
0x71eE92D742f972FFb63938dE0695C6Ccc72B9bd1-1775598788343	No	9.99
tsklee	No	6.38
ddd141	No	1.68

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
03:59:24	SELL	No	0.92	56	$51.96
02:20:14	BUY	No	0.9399999992	27	$25.00
13:13:51	BUY	No	0.9399999593	6	$6.00
11:15:27	BUY	Yes	0.08	25	$2.00
21:23:12	BUY	Yes	0.08	63	$5.00
08:10:25	BUY	No	0.94	20	$18.79
00:23:46	BUY	No	0.94	5	$4.69
21:49:53	SELL	No	0.94	43	$40.28
15:00:31	BUY	Yes	0.0699999998	43	$3.00
12:30:24	BUY	No	0.95	5	$4.75
09:20:28	BUY	Yes	0.08	109	$8.73
08:22:50	SELL	No	0.92	29	$26.87
20:28:41	BUY	Yes	0.069999999	29	$2.00
17:24:58	SELL	No	0.93	1	$0.60
14:55:01	BUY	Yes	0.07	13	$0.89
14:54:55	SELL	No	0.93	39	$36.37
10:56:32	BUY	Yes	0.0699999965	14	$1.00
00:45:43	SELL	No	0.94	150	$141.00
20:11:29	BUY	No	0.95	20	$19.00
20:11:24	SELL	Yes	0.05	100	$5.00
17:26:35	SELL	Yes	0.06	20	$1.20
17:26:33	BUY	No	0.92	289	$265.97
17:26:33	BUY	No	0.93	20	$18.60
17:26:33	BUY	No	0.9299999995	21	$19.20
17:26:32	BUY	No	0.93258125	80	$74.61