jaredsub
0xb3973c786724192943bdfe590e764ac3f7ec47e1
- Realised P&L
- $14.12
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? · No | 0.743 | 0.961 | $1.4k | +$318.12 |
| Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.995 | $16.58 | +$14.58 |
| Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$1.99 |
| Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$1.99 |
| Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$1.99 |
| Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes | 0.405 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights · Hurricanes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.93at 0.612Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
- +$6.33at 0.762Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
- +$5.94at 0.632Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score
- +$5.31at 0.808Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 11:15 | Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.0709999977 | $2.00 |
| 10-11 11:15 | Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 10-11 11:15 | Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999976 | $2.00 |
| 10-11 11:15 | Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999976 | $2.00 |
| 10-11 11:15 | Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-24 11:46 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999993 | $13.00 |
| 09-23 14:40 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7487901124 | $300.00 |
| 09-23 13:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 23? | BUY | 0.7749999884 | $10.00 |
| 09-23 13:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 23? | BUY | 0.8149999657 | $12.00 |
| 09-23 13:11 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999998 | $200.00 |
| 09-23 13:08 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999997 | $469.00 |
| 09-23 12:53 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999953 | $100.00 |
| 07-14 14:20 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.4050000332 | $5.00 |
| 07-11 14:23 | Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.6199999864 | $10.00 |
| 07-11 14:21 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.7524999932 | $20.00 |