PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

jaredsub

0xb3973c786724192943bdfe590e764ac3f7ec47e1

Realised P&L
$14.12
Volume
$1.7k
Markets traded
14
Open portfolio
$1.4k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded14
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration42.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample4 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration98.8% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? · No0.7430.961$1.4k+$318.12
Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes0.1200.995$16.58+$14.58
Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes0.0710.001$0.01−$1.99
Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes0.0800.001$0.01−$1.99
Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes0.1200.001$0.01−$1.99
Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes0.2100.001$0.00−$2.00
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? · Yes0.2600.000$0.00−$5.00
Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes0.4050.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00−$5.00
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights · Hurricanes0.5200.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-11 11:15Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?BUY0.0709999977$2.00
10-11 11:15Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?BUY0.08$2.00
10-11 11:15Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?BUY0.1199999976$2.00
10-11 11:15Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?BUY0.1199999976$2.00
10-11 11:15Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?BUY0.2099999895$2.00
09-24 11:46Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?BUY0.759999993$13.00
09-23 14:40Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?BUY0.7487901124$300.00
09-23 13:28Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 23?BUY0.7749999884$10.00
09-23 13:20Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 23?BUY0.8149999657$12.00
09-23 13:11Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?BUY0.7399999998$200.00
09-23 13:08Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?BUY0.7399999997$469.00
09-23 12:53Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?BUY0.7399999953$100.00
07-14 14:20Will France win on 2026-07-14?BUY0.4050000332$5.00
07-11 14:23Norway vs. England: Both Teams to ScoreBUY0.6199999864$10.00
07-11 14:21Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?BUY0.7524999932$20.00