PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

chessplayer

0x4b8ae011176b76888949476d7fb7a56985faf4a4

Realised P&L
$-16.6k
Volume
$6.86M
Markets traded
11,087
Open portfolio
$19.2k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded11,087
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
BlockerProfit concentration53.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration4.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Fluminense be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A? · No0.9800.978$453.40−$1.39
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? · No0.9300.995$371.07+$24.07
Will Pep Guardiola's next job be Brazil? · No0.8820.962$368.12+$30.49
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? · No0.5670.746$364.03+$87.07
Will Ben Johns / Anna Leigh Waters advance to the Round of 16 in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? · Yes0.8570.989$336.26+$44.90
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026? · No0.5300.825$300.89+$107.71
Will "Minions & Monsters" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.8570.855$290.70−$0.62
Will Gabriel Tardio qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? · Yes0.8410.951$286.51+$33.12
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026? · Yes0.6670.930$269.68+$76.18
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? · No0.5760.395$228.74−$105.02
Will Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year contain "vibe"? · No0.8500.926$216.80+$17.90
Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026? · Yes0.7490.915$206.06+$37.48
Will Jack Sock advance to the Quarterfinals in Men's Singles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? · Yes0.1750.530$204.26+$136.81
1win FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No0.5701.000$199.90+$85.90
Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun by November 30, 2026? · No0.8380.870$198.36+$7.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 18:43Will IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.29$5.80
11-01 18:09Will Moog (MOG.A) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.56$7.00
11-01 17:51Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.5$25.60
11-01 17:49Will Williams (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.43$21.50
11-01 17:49Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.27$13.50
11-01 17:48Will Charles River Laboratories (CRL) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.6$30.00
11-01 17:47Will Williams (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.41$25.56
11-01 17:46Will Charles River Laboratories (CRL) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.2371428571$16.60
11-01 17:43Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.54$27.00
11-01 17:42Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.26$13.00
11-01 17:38Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.39$35.10
11-01 17:38Will Chegg (CHGG) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.23$9.20
11-01 15:41Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026?SELL0.5091454828$154.02
11-01 15:25Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.44$22.00
11-01 15:14Will Hinge Health (HNGE) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.29$14.50