ddd141
0xfa686b1486c0622c54164d86b1d6f784d0bbba5d
- Realised P&L
- $-738.79
- Volume
- $259.7k
- Markets traded
- 1,829
- Open portfolio
- $592.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,829
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? · Yes | 0.663 | 0.545 | $118.80 | −$25.79 |
| Will Electronic Arts (EA) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.880 | 0.933 | $77.49 | +$4.44 |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · Yes | 0.952 | 0.999 | $69.90 | +$3.26 |
| Will any former NBA player be drafted in the 2027 WNBA Draft? · No | 0.952 | 0.954 | $66.78 | +$0.15 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.875 | $43.75 | +$10.25 |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.982 | $39.26 | +$0.48 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.959 | 0.951 | $38.04 | −$0.32 |
| Will Con Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.675 | $33.75 | +$2.25 |
| Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.625 | $31.25 | −$4.25 |
| Will Moog (MOG.A) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.420 | $29.40 | −$25.90 |
| Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.515 | $25.75 | −$7.75 |
| Discord IPO before 2027? · No | 0.931 | 0.936 | $18.73 | +$0.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.780US government shutdown by October 1?
- +$945.35at 0.007Trump out as President by March 31?
- +$841.00at 0.159Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$799.20at 0.016Netanyahu out by March 31?
- +$628.84at 0.003Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 12:21 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? | SELL | 0.52 | $104.00 |
| 10-29 22:16 | Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.9223193333 | $138.35 |
| 10-29 20:25 | Will Intel (INTC) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 10-29 19:10 | Will Piper Sandler (PIPR) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.7 | $70.00 |
| 10-29 17:16 | Will Cloudflare (NET) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.8571428571 | $60.00 |
| 10-26 23:58 | Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.74 | $48.10 |
| 10-25 21:38 | Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? | BUY | 0.982 | $34.28 |
| 10-23 23:13 | Will Piper Sandler (PIPR) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.8 | $160.00 |
| 10-23 23:00 | Will Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.55 | $11.00 |
| 10-23 22:59 | Will Tradeweb (TW) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6 | $30.00 |
| 10-23 22:54 | Will Ares Management (ARES) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.87 | $6.69 |
| 10-23 22:40 | Will Teladoc (TDOC) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.35 | $17.50 |
| 10-23 22:09 | Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5700642055 | $56.82 |
| 10-23 22:02 | Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.106 | $5.30 |
| 10-23 21:59 | Will Rivian (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.1906666667 | $5.72 |