PragueSizeLord
0xca2d945f95696725afb3cf9e4524b1e6e281a538
- Realised P&L
- $-12.29
- Volume
- $17.6k
- Markets traded
- 324
- Open portfolio
- $83.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded324
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.02at 0.014Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$43.63at 0.590Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$17.52at 0.369SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
- +$16.98at 0.005Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?
- +$15.56at 0.318Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 08:11 | Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999976 | $4.00 |
| 10-11 07:54 | Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999983 | $5.00 |
| 10-11 07:38 | Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.119999999 | $5.00 |
| 10-10 21:26 | Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999976 | $2.00 |
| 10-10 21:24 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.83 | $12.20 |
| 10-10 21:23 | Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |
| 10-10 21:22 | Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999987 | $5.00 |
| 09-26 19:30 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.649999974 | $5.00 |
| 09-26 19:30 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.339999985 | $5.00 |
| 08-28 15:22 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.91 |
| 08-23 17:28 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | BUY | 0.149999976 | $5.00 |
| 08-23 17:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? | BUY | 0.0189999908 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 17:26 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 12:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET | SELL | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 08-23 12:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |