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Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2026-08-17
Resolves by
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards
20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.10. up 0.02 over the period, from 0.09. Range 0.04 to 0.14. 92 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.114141
0.122061
0.131071
0.1631102
0.1711113
0.1830143
0.1935178
0.20122299
0.2374373
0.2450423
0.27250673
0.28206879

Spread0.01Mid0.11

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.103232
0.094072
0.07273345
0.06111456
0.05142599
0.03161760
0.023631,123
0.014101,533

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.903232
0.914072
0.93273345
0.94111456
0.95142599
0.97161760
0.983631,123
0.994101,533

Spread0.01Mid0.90

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.894141
0.882061
0.871071
0.8431102
0.8311113
0.8230143
0.8135178
0.80122299
0.7774373
0.7650423
0.73250673
0.72206879

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
balthazarYes700
iutwpfalYes348.91
NoTeacherYes299.57
0x9687…1b7cYes90
ScottsRoadYes80
LornaPredictsYes60
balabalababalabalaYes37
Numitus1994Yes21
PPMTYes20
alphalab1Yes20
tradetosurvive1Yes15
GuyFromTinderYes10.93
billygodYes10.12
AJSVYes8.36
aHjCzYes2.95
0xa5ef…2966No1,084.49
meowtaiNo393.29
BetterFishNo200
snrtsNo21.05
ladbiscuitNo11.12

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
13:56:23SELLYes0.120$2.00
13:56:18BUYNo0.96$5.00
13:56:18BUYNo0.96$5.00
13:56:17SELLYes0.120$2.00
13:56:14BUYNo0.89140$124.60
10:48:17BUYYes0.091351351437$3.38
19:39:18BUYNo0.949999976221$20.00
17:55:44BUYYes0.15$0.50
17:54:41BUYYes0.15$0.50
14:47:18BUYNo0.949$8.46
14:47:18BUYNo0.9416$14.75
14:12:33SELLYes0.065$0.30
14:08:32SELLYes0.066$0.36
14:06:41SELLYes0.065$0.30
14:06:29SELLNo0.9339$35.91
13:46:18BUYNo0.965$4.80
13:46:18BUYNo0.9610$9.60
10:16:09SELLYes0.0416$0.65
10:16:06SELLYes0.0516$0.82
09:13:08SELLYes0.0520$1.00
08:10:35SELLYes0.0520$1.00
07:22:26BUYYes0.095$0.45
07:22:21BUYYes0.095$0.45
07:22:17BUYYes0.095$0.45
07:22:14BUYYes0.095$0.45