Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends: 2026-10-13
Resolves by: https://www.nobelprize.org/
Rewards: 50 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.20. up 0.00 over the period, from 0.20. Range 0.17 to 0.35. 72 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.21	150	150
0.22	375	525
0.23	2,175	2,700
0.24	312	3,012
0.25	500	3,512
0.27	20	3,532
0.28	30	3,562
0.30	21	3,583
0.33	21	3,604
0.34	20	3,624
0.44	9	3,633
0.49	15	3,648

Spread0.01Mid0.21

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.20	549	549
0.19	818	1,368
0.18	603	1,971
0.17	1,392	3,363
0.16	150	3,513
0.15	520	4,033
0.07	292	4,325
0.06	333	4,658
0.05	300	4,958
0.04	375	5,333
0.03	340	5,673
0.02	563	6,236

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.80	549	549
0.81	818	1,368
0.82	603	1,971
0.83	1,392	3,363
0.84	150	3,513
0.85	520	4,033
0.93	292	4,325
0.94	333	4,658
0.95	300	4,958
0.96	375	5,333
0.97	340	5,673
0.98	563	6,236

Spread0.01Mid0.80

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.79	150	150
0.78	375	525
0.77	2,175	2,700
0.76	312	3,012
0.75	500	3,512
0.73	20	3,532
0.72	30	3,562
0.70	21	3,583
0.67	21	3,604
0.66	20	3,624
0.56	9	3,633
0.51	15	3,648

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
Haradwaith	Yes	732.64
gamingcat	Yes	700
marksman	Yes	681.45
itachi0x	Yes	431.71
acc42020	Yes	300
bufogodis	Yes	249.56
lissartter	Yes	228.82
0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Yes	180
tradetosurvive1	Yes	160.99
doglover4571	Yes	156
title1	Yes	103.85
0x5caac32F68c19aeAB0023F12726B9a9645184831-1779438789697	Yes	100
0xf2Da6437EF9e01CF9B2cC393dbBE91A85ab59385-1777211546173	Yes	100
Spectrum	Yes	53
flippon	Yes	50
sdssds	Yes	31.45
0x4629…f3b1	Yes	30
alualu28	Yes	26.32
Marouane735	Yes	26.32
aliiz	Yes	21

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
10:03:52	SELL	No	0.79	3	$2.16
09:45:12	SELL	No	0.79	50	$39.50
09:44:54	BUY	Yes	0.22	100	$22.00
09:44:54	BUY	Yes	0.2130555556	72	$15.34
09:44:54	BUY	Yes	0.22	50	$11.00
09:44:52	BUY	Yes	0.21	700	$147.00
09:17:39	SELL	No	0.8	120	$96.00
09:12:21	SELL	Yes	0.19	35	$6.65
08:42:12	SELL	No	0.8	20	$16.00
08:41:57	SELL	No	0.8	62	$49.38
08:41:55	BUY	Yes	0.2	20	$4.00
08:41:55	BUY	Yes	0.19	397	$75.38
08:41:55	BUY	Yes	0.2	55	$11.00
07:15:34	SELL	Yes	0.18	53	$9.47
07:15:01	BUY	Yes	0.1899999998	53	$10.00
07:14:27	SELL	Yes	0.18	53	$9.47
07:12:03	SELL	No	0.81	20	$16.20
07:12:01	BUY	Yes	0.19	20	$3.80
07:12:01	BUY	Yes	0.1899999998	53	$10.00
07:10:39	SELL	Yes	0.18	53	$9.47
07:10:28	BUY	Yes	0.1899999998	53	$10.00
06:38:40	BUY	Yes	0.1899999962	5	$1.00
05:53:44	BUY	Yes	0.19	13	$2.47
05:09:30	BUY	No	0.82	5	$4.10
04:19:31	BUY	Yes	0.19	15	$2.85