flippon
0xc3cdce7311e82cb064a12bdca9a06b88c4a6980e
- Realised P&L
- $698.84
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $560.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar18.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration94.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Labour Party candidate win 45-50% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? · Yes | 0.408 | 0.961 | $258.70 | +$148.70 |
| Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.847 | 1.000 | $118.00 | +$18.00 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.280 | $49.28 | +$19.36 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.100 | $46.18 | −$3.82 |
| Will Ewan Cameron finish third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? · Yes | 0.440 | 1.000 | $45.45 | +$25.45 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 9? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.035 | $17.26 | −$82.74 |
| Will the Labour Party candidate win 40-45% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? · Yes | 0.353 | 0.035 | $15.15 | −$139.85 |
| Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.205 | $10.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 8? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$645.31at 0.082Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
- +$38.81at 0.839Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 22:57 | Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 9? | BUY | 0.2057215635 | $100.00 |
| 10-08 10:52 | Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.4199999966 | $10.00 |
| 10-07 23:59 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.8316097804 | $200.00 |
| 10-07 23:15 | Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 10-07 23:10 | Will Ewan Cameron finish third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.4399999947 | $20.00 |
| 10-07 23:01 | Will the Labour Party candidate win 40-45% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.3799999982 | $50.00 |
| 10-07 22:35 | Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | BUY | 0.1082677165 | $50.00 |
| 10-07 21:19 | Will the Labour Party candidate win 45-50% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.3546325862 | $30.00 |
| 10-07 21:15 | Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.8469999959 | $100.00 |
| 10-07 07:10 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | SELL | 0.9596470504 | $671.52 |
| 10-06 23:02 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | SELL | 0.955 | $10.29 |
| 10-06 22:56 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | BUY | 0.17 | $29.92 |
| 10-06 22:49 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | SELL | 0.97 | $23.48 |
| 10-05 23:19 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.0816599656 | $60.00 |
| 10-04 20:14 | Will the Labour Party candidate win 45-50% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.4330257034 | $80.00 |