Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-12-31
Resolves by: https://lmarena.ai/
Rewards: 50 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.36. down 0.17 over the period, from 0.54. Range 0.26 to 0.57. 149 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.37	825	825
0.38	1,525	2,350
0.39	1,185	3,535
0.40	1,228	4,763
0.41	3,389	8,152
0.42	2,442	10,594
0.43	7,499	18,093
0.44	710	18,803
0.45	102	18,905
0.48	150	19,055
0.52	400	19,455
0.53	2,528	21,983

Spread0.01Mid0.36

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.36	2,949	2,949
0.35	1,584	4,533
0.34	2,098	6,631
0.33	600	7,231
0.32	295	7,526
0.31	225	7,751
0.30	720	8,471
0.27	200	8,671
0.26	1,135	9,805
0.25	3,220	13,025
0.24	500	13,525
0.23	600	14,125

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.64	2,949	2,949
0.65	1,584	4,533
0.66	2,098	6,631
0.67	600	7,231
0.68	295	7,526
0.69	225	7,751
0.70	720	8,471
0.73	200	8,671
0.74	1,135	9,805
0.75	3,220	13,025
0.76	500	13,525
0.77	600	14,125

Spread0.01Mid0.64

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.63	825	825
0.62	1,525	2,350
0.61	1,185	3,535
0.60	1,228	4,763
0.59	3,389	8,152
0.58	2,442	10,594
0.57	7,499	18,093
0.56	710	18,803
0.55	102	18,905
0.52	150	19,055
0.48	400	19,455
0.47	2,528	21,983

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
0x84828283773829	Yes	16,563.98
mewmew1	Yes	9,643.64
TheWindKnowsmyName	Yes	8,633.05
dfsahg1	Yes	8,018.49
0xc6f8…8efb	Yes	6,924.99
aliaspopeye	Yes	6,552.26
MEPP	Yes	6,499.99
Ditto321	Yes	6,410.25
Anhedonia100	Yes	5,400.11
0xA5d833A23bC19B7D38ADcBEE7c117A8F421EFF3A-1779306353525	Yes	5,000
ImBruceWayne	Yes	4,999.99
bmtr	Yes	4,736.81
Hyperlong	Yes	4,641
eNakeVets	Yes	3,938.9
0xF5CD07E03C5Ad688Fa368e727D8D8431F5b6f0D4-1761308777646	Yes	3,905.54
Rr55	Yes	3,862.17
donthackme	Yes	3,703.43
EvanCross	Yes	3,274.81
zee3617	Yes	2,200
Tenebrus7	Yes	2,158.55

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
21:56:31	BUY	Yes	0.36	25	$8.89
21:56:31	BUY	Yes	0.36	100	$36.00
21:56:31	BUY	No	0.64	574	$367.49
21:56:30	BUY	No	0.64	105	$67.20
19:48:45	SELL	Yes	0.36	11	$3.83
19:44:37	BUY	Yes	0.3699999958	81	$30.00
18:06:39	BUY	Yes	0.37	5	$1.85
17:28:00	BUY	Yes	0.3699999593	3	$1.00
16:10:01	BUY	Yes	0.3699999958	41	$15.00
16:09:07	BUY	Yes	0.3699999724	13	$4.82
15:18:25	BUY	Yes	0.37	20	$7.40
14:54:19	BUY	Yes	0.37	6	$2.13
14:53:09	BUY	Yes	0.3699999593	8	$3.00
14:32:01	SELL	Yes	0.36	19	$6.98
12:26:04	BUY	Yes	0.3699999984	189	$70.00
12:24:03	BUY	Yes	0.3699999958	81	$30.00
12:00:49	BUY	Yes	0.37	152	$56.24
11:25:22	BUY	No	0.64	59	$37.77
06:01:52	SELL	Yes	0.36	164	$59.04
05:19:28	BUY	Yes	0.3699999593	8	$3.00
05:01:36	BUY	Yes	0.3699999867	14	$5.00
00:29:34	SELL	Yes	0.36	24	$8.71
00:20:51	BUY	No	0.63	53	$33.43
00:20:45	BUY	No	0.63	53	$33.43
00:19:01	BUY	Yes	0.361459405	906	$327.39