0xA5d833A23bC19B7D38ADcBEE7c117A8F421EFF3A-1779306353525
0xa5d833a23bc19b7d38adcbee7c117a8f421eff3a
- Realised P&L
- $9.6k
- Volume
- $240.8k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $17.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.899 | 0.945 | $5.7k | +$280.32 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.665 | 0.565 | $4.1k | −$729.34 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.853 | 0.931 | $3.3k | +$278.78 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.365 | $1.8k | −$825.00 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.921 | $1.7k | +$75.15 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.495 | 0.285 | $1.1k | −$839.96 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? · No | 0.225 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.57 |
| Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? · Yes | 0.196 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.2kat 0.680Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$1.1kat 0.810Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$983.29at 0.742Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$725.52at 0.870Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$719.34at 0.765US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 23:46 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.021 | $20.69 |
| 10-25 23:46 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.022 | $7.04 |
| 10-18 18:13 | Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? | BUY | 0.4727944 | $141.84 |
| 10-16 15:33 | Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? | BUY | 0.596 | $152.58 |
| 10-16 15:26 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.768 | $1.0k |
| 10-04 16:07 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.94 | $1000.00 |
| 10-04 16:02 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.1585185954 | $840.40 |
| 10-04 15:58 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $530.00 |
| 10-04 15:55 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $2.1k |
| 10-04 15:51 | Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.209735 | $4.19 |
| 10-04 15:51 | Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.40 |
| 10-04 15:50 | Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.19 | $17.48 |
| 10-04 15:42 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $1.7k |
| 10-04 15:36 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $415.65 |
| 10-04 15:36 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $241.92 |