0xA5d833A23bC19B7D38ADcBEE7c117A8F421EFF3A-1779306353525
0xa5d833a23bc19b7d38adcbee7c117a8f421eff3a
- Realised P&L
- $11.2k
- Volume
- $221.5k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $13.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)79.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.682 | 0.785 | $4.9k | +$648.73 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.895 | $4.5k | +$25.00 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.951 | $1.8k | +$129.66 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.495 | 0.405 | $1.6k | −$359.96 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.165 | $874.76 | −$26.51 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? · No | 0.225 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.2kat 0.680Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$1.1kat 0.810Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$983.29at 0.742Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$781.33at 0.333Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?
- +$725.52at 0.870Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 00:16 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.89 | $4.5k |
| 09-14 17:23 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.15 | $450.00 |
| 09-03 12:57 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.0k |
| 08-26 12:14 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.68 | $218.43 |
| 08-26 12:13 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.649113278 | $142.45 |
| 08-26 12:13 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.6388352381 | $134.16 |
| 08-25 23:43 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.8699852407 | $2.9k |
| 08-17 12:34 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $391.27 |
| 08-17 12:34 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $1.5k |
| 08-14 18:35 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.9k |
| 08-14 18:32 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.6416666667 | $3.85 |
| 08-14 18:18 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.3k |
| 08-14 18:16 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.65 | $78.17 |
| 08-14 18:11 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $19.85 |
| 08-14 18:09 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.64 | $169.36 |