EvanCross
0x6d38b748fa7e7b0ef783a177a13a6ca181de382c
- Realised P&L
- $-2.6k
- Volume
- $138.1k
- Markets traded
- 129
- Open portfolio
- $6.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded129
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.653 | 0.685 | $3.6k | +$167.92 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.672 | 0.725 | $2.4k | +$171.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$846.70at 0.453Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- +$729.71at 0.480Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
- +$719.83at 0.280Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$535.38at 0.765Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$384.41at 0.610Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 12:56 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $2.3k |
| 08-25 10:00 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | SELL | 0.032 | $44.80 |
| 08-03 15:04 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.51 | $49.31 |
| 08-02 05:09 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $144.00 |
| 08-02 05:08 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.78 | $780.00 |
| 08-02 05:08 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.77 | $361.90 |
| 08-01 05:05 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $317.90 |
| 08-01 04:59 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.1508039427 | $117.50 |
| 07-18 17:33 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.402 | $241.20 |
| 07-15 02:28 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.465 | $93.00 |
| 07-14 15:40 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 07-14 15:37 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $569.65 |
| 07-14 15:34 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.395 | $39.50 |
| 07-14 15:34 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.395 | $39.50 |
| 07-14 15:33 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.9243572 | $3.7k |