PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Hyperlong

0x014c4e7ae2145992861c2d1b124af633a97f820c

Realised P&L
$-57.3k
Volume
$10.48M
Markets traded
1,296
Open portfolio
$511.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,296
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration27.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.875$100.6k+$43.1k
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.8950.977$42.9k+$3.6k
Will Chicago Bears win the 2026 NFC North? · No0.7510.725$22.7k−$809.54
Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026? · No0.9370.922$19.2k−$295.33
Will Dante Moore win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? · No0.9650.997$17.9k+$565.98
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5000.126$14.4k−$43.1k
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.4500.403$11.2k−$1.3k
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · No0.9180.981$11.0k+$710.16
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.7910.954$8.2k+$1.4k
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No0.8780.706$7.0k−$1.7k
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? · Yes0.2080.275$5.9k+$1.4k
Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL MVP? · No0.8720.945$5.7k+$435.67
Will the Republicans win the Delaware Senate race in 2026? · No0.9700.987$5.4k+$93.76
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top artist in the US for 2026? · No0.9430.995$5.1k+$265.52
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? · No0.8510.945$5.1k+$508.29

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 21:26Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?BUY0.59$437.97
11-01 21:24Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?BUY0.87$309.53
11-01 17:15Will Florida win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?BUY0.8191271158$98.72
11-01 17:14Will Florida win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?BUY0.8$480.80
11-01 09:13Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY0.979$2.1k
10-31 19:27Will Jaxson Smith-Njigba win the 2026 NFL MVP?BUY0.9597340507$2.5k
10-31 19:23Will Solana reach $300 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.013$5.20
10-31 16:13Will Once Upon a Time in Harlem win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?BUY0.011546476$1.24
10-31 16:12Will Drake headline Coachella 2027?BUY0.7043623502$35.85
10-31 16:11Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?BUY0.1$642.45
10-31 16:10Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?BUY0.33$171.50
10-31 16:08Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.04$16.66
10-31 16:01Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.2$1.6k
10-31 14:18Will Tom Holland win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?BUY0.957747137$522.69
10-31 12:42Will Trey McBride be the highest-scoring TE of the 2026-27 NFL season?BUY0.6070531915$228.25