PolyBot

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Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01
Resolves by
https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.10. down 0.03 over the period, from 0.13. Range 0.09 to 0.14. 151 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.144040
0.16104144
0.1775219
0.184,7494,968
0.26505,018
0.271165,134
0.33235,156
0.34155,171
0.491005,271
0.50605,331
0.58405,371
0.594835,854

Spread0.08Mid0.10

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.06204204
0.0548252
0.0440292
0.03253545
0.021,1321,677
0.015112,187

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.94204204
0.9548252
0.9640292
0.97253545
0.981,1321,677
0.995112,187

Spread0.08Mid0.90

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.864040
0.84104144
0.8375219
0.824,7494,968
0.74505,018
0.731165,134
0.67235,156
0.66155,171
0.511005,271
0.50605,331
0.42405,371
0.414835,854

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
molodoyyYes840.39
xtxpleasecallmeYes232.81
panflashYes200
folioquantYes199.79
tradetosurvive1Yes164.07
0x6b0e…e3eaYes97.76
Dr.PNLYes90.48
ufodiscYes80.39
HerrieDavisYes61.38
0x651A84eC4AAB705bB3d8f4c831ef46eCdbC622E9-1763158430545Yes52.21
0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758Yes41
johnthekYes39.77
FihdrzgddYes35
0xd45b…7ae6Yes22.72
crossFiterYes20
wildboar08Yes15
GuyFromTinderYes14.86
ItsmeitfYes12.9
ddaasdfYes10
UniLBYes5.88

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
12:58:42BUYYes0.0911$0.99
12:48:40BUYNo0.8990551505487$437.71
12:48:40BUYYes0.113$1.32
09:36:32SELLYes0.1120$2.20
20:07:23SELLNo0.850341325871$60.29
02:29:30SELLYes0.1247$5.60
02:29:30BUYYes0.1219$2.34
11:30:21SELLYes0.1507995003400$60.36
07:49:57BUYYes0.1692$14.72
07:09:27BUYYes0.172372100$17.24
10:41:01SELLYes0.1518$2.70
10:41:00SELLYes0.1620$3.20
10:40:45SELLYes0.1620$3.20
10:40:43BUYYes0.186$1.06
10:40:42BUYNo0.82184$150.54
10:40:40BUYNo0.8430$25.20
10:40:40BUYNo0.8320$16.60
10:40:40BUYNo0.8310$8.30
05:19:06SELLNo0.85$4.38
17:34:04SELLNo0.820$16.00
13:40:00SELLNo0.8115$11.76
13:39:59BUYYes0.1924$4.56
13:39:59BUYYes0.18274$49.39
13:39:57BUYYes0.189999997952$9.87
12:59:18BUYYes0.220$4.00