fernanserrano
0xd45bf3092b2c2904bff634367faffd0e05437ae6
- Realised P&L
- $-971.48
- Volume
- $41.7k
- Markets traded
- 3,074
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,074
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration38.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.40at 0.520Will "Obsolete" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?
- +$10.50at 0.580Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
- +$9.60at 0.737LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- +$9.11at 0.398Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
- +$8.88at 0.360Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 14:05 | Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election? | SELL | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 09-07 13:38 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.38 | $38.00 |
| 09-07 13:32 | Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election? | SELL | 0.39 | $7.80 |
| 08-27 07:20 | Will Maurice Vunobolki win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.31 | $6.20 |
| 08-27 07:16 | Will Robert Ritz win the 2026 Stratford mayoral election? | SELL | 0.16 | $3.20 |
| 08-27 07:13 | Will Robert Ritz win the 2026 Stratford mayoral election? | SELL | 0.16 | $3.20 |
| 08-27 06:19 | Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.683 | $12.98 |
| 08-27 05:26 | Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.22 | $4.40 |
| 08-27 05:26 | Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 08-27 05:13 | Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 08-27 03:23 | Will Robert Ritz win the 2026 Stratford mayoral election? | SELL | 0.82 | $14.48 |
| 08-26 18:43 | Will Kanye West feature Chief Keef during his Chicago homecoming performances? | SELL | 0.2 | $4.00 |
| 08-26 18:26 | Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on September 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 08-26 17:39 | Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.75T? | SELL | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 08-26 16:40 | Will Linke win between 9% and 12% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.39 | $7.80 |