PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

fernanserrano

0xd45bf3092b2c2904bff634367faffd0e05437ae6

Realised P&L
$-971.48
Volume
$41.7k
Markets traded
3,074
Open portfolio
$1.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded3,074
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration38.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? · No0.5200.705$105.75+$27.75
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · No0.6820.676$87.88−$0.74
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? · Yes0.4070.295$59.00−$22.50
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.2970.285$51.39−$2.05
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? · No0.6150.335$40.20−$33.60
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? · No0.7250.765$39.62+$2.07
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? · Yes0.7700.680$34.13−$4.49
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? · Hike 25 bps0.3700.290$29.00−$8.00
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? · No0.5700.545$24.62−$1.13
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026? · No0.7230.269$24.16−$40.88
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? · No0.8300.915$18.30+$1.70
Will Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election? · No0.7700.880$17.60+$2.20
Will Jessie Irvine qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? · No0.8700.840$16.80−$0.60
Will Maurice Vunobolki win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election? · No0.6900.835$16.69+$2.89
Will over 60 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? · No0.8500.925$16.65+$1.35

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-07 14:05Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?SELL0.57$11.40
09-07 13:38Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?SELL0.38$38.00
09-07 13:32Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?SELL0.39$7.80
08-27 07:20Will Maurice Vunobolki win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?SELL0.31$6.20
08-27 07:16Will Robert Ritz win the 2026 Stratford mayoral election?SELL0.16$3.20
08-27 07:13Will Robert Ritz win the 2026 Stratford mayoral election?SELL0.16$3.20
08-27 06:19Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?SELL0.683$12.98
08-27 05:26Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.22$4.40
08-27 05:26Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.72$14.40
08-27 05:13Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.25$5.00
08-27 03:23Will Robert Ritz win the 2026 Stratford mayoral election?SELL0.82$14.48
08-26 18:43Will Kanye West feature Chief Keef during his Chicago homecoming performances?SELL0.2$4.00
08-26 18:26Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?SELL0.24$4.80
08-26 17:39Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.75T?SELL0.15$3.00
08-26 16:40Will Linke win between 9% and 12% of all valid second votes?SELL0.39$7.80