PolyBot

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Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-11-01
Resolves by
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/
Rewards
20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.89. down 0.05 over the period, from 0.94. Range 0.85 to 0.94. 170 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.92436436
0.94278714
0.95100814
0.982841,098
0.992741,372

Spread0.06Mid0.89

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.86465465
0.8564529
0.5417546
0.5330576
0.415581
0.2740621
0.2680701
0.09280981
0.042501,231
0.034171,647
0.023,6255,272
0.011,4356,707

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.14465465
0.1564529
0.4617546
0.4730576
0.595581
0.7340621
0.7480701
0.91280981
0.962501,231
0.974171,647
0.983,6255,272
0.991,4356,707

Spread0.06Mid0.11

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.08436436
0.06278714
0.05100814
0.022841,098
0.012741,372

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
DEGENKHANYes478
0x7f15F350261a0dfA8bff802df364E33773d552f1-1768964329836Yes251.09
KiruaTradingYes156.08
0xBC142bdB0c9f6A197E890C7Fe6c5f8A24C542572-1773218488342Yes144
memetalYes84.32
timeistmoneyYes82.39
yescatYes41.09
nullpointer1Yes21.52
ppyiagoYes20.46
2B9SYes20
Elias.ThornwellYes11.76
DowJones2Yes5.86
GuyFromTinderYes1
buyat89No467.65
Numitus1994No335.98
Terry241129No240
AJSVNo150.94
justagrosshopperNo84
ViscaElBarcaNo20
Tallguy2527No19

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
16:13:56BUYYes0.9148913043368$336.68
10:04:45BUYYes0.93144$133.92
09:10:17BUYYes0.91999999820$18.82
09:10:03BUYYes0.919999998122$19.80
00:14:26BUYYes0.92282528$25.84
00:14:26BUYYes0.9169$152.10
03:48:45BUYYes0.941$36.98
00:46:32SELLYes0.854$3.39
23:33:37SELLYes0.8520$17.00
23:30:44SELLYes0.8560$51.00
23:27:28SELLYes0.852580$68.20
22:58:08SELLYes0.8620$17.20
22:54:33SELLYes0.8680$68.80
20:26:45BUYYes0.886$5.16
19:46:39SELLYes0.8660$51.60
17:08:39BUYNo0.3207548225468$150.00
16:37:17BUYNo0.0884$6.72
15:50:45BUYNo0.0820$1.61
12:35:46BUYNo0.0820$1.60
12:35:22BUYYes0.9282$75.52
05:47:51SELLNo0.103333333360$6.20
00:17:11BUYNo0.0820$1.61
20:24:13BUYNo0.0612$0.71
19:38:26BUYNo0.0820$1.60
19:38:25BUYNo0.0820$1.60