Elias.Thornwell
0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3
- Realised P&L
- $83.96
- Volume
- $7.52M
- Markets traded
- 24,803
- Open portfolio
- $691.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded24,803
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- CautionProfit concentration37.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.5kat 0.704Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$3.0kat 0.011Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.868Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$1.9kat 0.935Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$1.8kat 0.693Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 11:29 | Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $7.83 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat? | BUY | 0.75 | $41.05 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.99 | $36.68 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | BUY | 0.72 | $7.20 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $43.53 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.995 | $37.81 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will Napoli win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.996 | $11.98 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.49 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | BUY | 0.88 | $7.96 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $245.00 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $38.98 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.49 | $40.04 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? | BUY | 0.82 | $8.29 |
| 11-01 11:29 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.67 |
| 11-01 11:28 | Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.02 |