PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Elias.Thornwell

0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3

Realised P&L
$33.9k
Volume
$6.62M
Markets traded
21,252
Open portfolio
$601.8k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded21,252
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
BlockerProfit concentration76.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration10.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9500.962$30.9k+$369.96
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9500.955$23.3k+$109.96
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.9310.958$21.9k+$595.60
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.9170.962$15.1k+$703.43
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.9190.945$12.4k+$343.64
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.9520.974$11.3k+$249.38
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.9160.970$11.2k+$613.71
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.8840.945$10.7k+$692.76
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9280.975$9.3k+$443.30
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7870.835$8.8k+$504.36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.5920.825$8.4k+$2.4k
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No0.9710.995$7.2k+$168.26
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.6750.948$6.6k+$1.9k
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No0.9360.936$6.1k+$0.48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.8380.935$5.8k+$598.30

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 21:53Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.982$30.30
09-16 21:53Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?BUY0.79$4.47
09-16 21:53Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.991$14.87
09-16 21:53Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election?BUY0.972$35.53
09-16 21:52Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.08$1.05
09-16 21:52Will Unity win less than 0.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?BUY0.99$37.11
09-16 21:52Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?BUY0.53$12.04
09-16 21:52Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.76$16.54
09-16 21:52Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.003$1.72
09-16 21:52Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?BUY0.986$873.80
09-16 21:52Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.34$2.71
09-16 21:52Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?BUY0.948$9.49
09-16 21:52Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.99$33.59
09-16 21:52Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 16?BUY0.999$8.26
09-16 21:52Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.89$4.45