Elias.Thornwell
0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3
- Realised P&L
- $33.9k
- Volume
- $6.62M
- Markets traded
- 21,252
- Open portfolio
- $601.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded21,252
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.5kat 0.704Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$2.6kat 0.011Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.868Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$1.9kat 0.935Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$1.5kat 0.843Trump out as President by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 21:53 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.982 | $30.30 |
| 09-16 21:53 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $4.47 |
| 09-16 21:53 | Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.991 | $14.87 |
| 09-16 21:53 | Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? | BUY | 0.972 | $35.53 |
| 09-16 21:52 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.05 |
| 09-16 21:52 | Will Unity win less than 0.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.99 | $37.11 |
| 09-16 21:52 | Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.53 | $12.04 |
| 09-16 21:52 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.76 | $16.54 |
| 09-16 21:52 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.72 |
| 09-16 21:52 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.986 | $873.80 |
| 09-16 21:52 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $2.71 |
| 09-16 21:52 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.948 | $9.49 |
| 09-16 21:52 | Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.99 | $33.59 |
| 09-16 21:52 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 16? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.26 |
| 09-16 21:52 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.89 | $4.45 |