PolyBot

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Traders

Elias.Thornwell

0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3

Realised P&L
$83.96
Volume
$7.52M
Markets traded
24,803
Open portfolio
$691.9k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded24,803
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
CautionProfit concentration37.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9500.982$31.5k+$1.0k
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9500.977$23.8k+$634.69
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.9320.973$22.2k+$933.24
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.9170.972$15.3k+$860.59
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8150.825$15.3k+$190.79
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.9190.966$12.6k+$612.10
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.9160.977$11.2k+$694.34
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.8840.983$11.1k+$1.1k
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.9140.945$10.5k+$345.00
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9280.980$9.4k+$491.18
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.9240.945$7.9k+$175.62
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No0.9020.945$7.8k+$356.55
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.8570.955$7.2k+$740.62
US recession by end of 2026? · No0.9070.945$7.1k+$281.35
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.6780.971$6.8k+$2.0k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 11:29Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026?BUY0.993$7.83
11-01 11:29Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?BUY0.75$41.05
11-01 11:29Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?BUY0.99$36.68
11-01 11:29Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?BUY0.72$7.20
11-01 11:29Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?BUY0.993$43.53
11-01 11:29Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?BUY0.995$37.81
11-01 11:29Will Napoli win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?BUY0.996$11.98
11-01 11:29Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A?BUY0.8$4.49
11-01 11:29Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?BUY0.88$7.96
11-01 11:29Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?BUY0.98$245.00
11-01 11:29Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?BUY0.42$38.98
11-01 11:29Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.49$40.04
11-01 11:29Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?BUY0.82$8.29
11-01 11:29Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?BUY0.999$9.67
11-01 11:28Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?BUY0.99$19.02