Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-12-31
Resolves by: https://agi.safe.ai/
Rewards: 40 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.43. up 0.05 over the period, from 0.39. Range 0.38 to 0.73. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.44	109	109
0.45	122	231
0.47	150	381
0.54	17	398
0.55	24	423
0.56	100	523
0.66	100	623
0.67	80	703
0.71	200	903
0.73	240	1,143
0.74	40	1,183
0.84	6	1,189

Spread0.01Mid0.43

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.43	586	586
0.42	226	812
0.41	100	912
0.29	28	940
0.28	39	979
0.26	23	1,002
0.24	5	1,007
0.04	167	1,174
0.03	250	1,424
0.02	438	1,862
0.01	1,013	2,874

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.57	586	586
0.58	226	812
0.59	100	912
0.71	28	940
0.72	39	979
0.74	23	1,002
0.76	5	1,007
0.96	167	1,174
0.97	250	1,424
0.98	438	1,862
0.99	1,013	2,874

Spread0.01Mid0.56

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.56	109	109
0.55	122	231
0.53	150	381
0.46	17	398
0.45	24	423
0.44	100	523
0.34	100	623
0.33	80	703
0.29	200	903
0.27	240	1,143
0.26	40	1,183
0.16	6	1,189

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
shoobadooba18	Yes	240
Bodytobody	Yes	200
iutwpfal	Yes	150
Fluo	Yes	100
predictdogepepewif	Yes	80
wendywu1	Yes	50
GuyFromTinder	Yes	49
pmlptest	Yes	40
0x4629…f3b1	Yes	40
AJSV	Yes	26
0x76d5…70ed	Yes	20
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	10
0xd823721597A464008050819ECC2d6C2c43E512fE-1782111812111	Yes	10
0x8e8208EF4D217dA3608479639dAA218a52EC30aF-1772207100223	Yes	10
0x00cDEa4d807710807cdBC54AD34cFAFCd992c0aE-1782010404295	Yes	5
0xd10A59fCC18955EeAebd06D1234Cc3BD1e3fB9cD-1782111984332	Yes	5
AMAM13	No	390
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	No	187.25
0xca75…0a64	No	156.62
Olcan	No	123.37

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
03:20:38	SELL	Yes	0.43	13	$5.48
16:04:32	SELL	Yes	0.43	13	$5.48
01:58:15	SELL	Yes	0.43	80	$34.40
01:17:27	SELL	Yes	0.43	26	$10.96
07:34:27	SELL	No	0.59	61	$35.99
02:36:05	SELL	No	0.59	10	$5.72
19:40:36	BUY	Yes	0.41	21	$8.74
19:40:36	SELL	No	0.5758302606	317	$182.72
19:40:36	BUY	Yes	0.41	69	$28.29
17:26:20	SELL	No	0.6019300068	250	$150.67
17:09:33	BUY	No	0.57	40	$22.80
17:09:30	BUY	Yes	0.44	27	$11.88
17:08:26	BUY	No	0.581914765	132	$77.01
16:33:44	BUY	No	0.5	40	$20.00
00:12:57	BUY	Yes	0.4446	50	$22.23
15:39:30	SELL	Yes	0.42	51	$21.42
13:39:56	SELL	No	0.4923138889	72	$35.45
13:00:41	BUY	No	0.5	30	$15.00
12:59:27	SELL	No	0.58	69	$39.97
12:56:08	BUY	Yes	0.31	40	$12.40
12:56:02	SELL	No	0.6782648223	230	$155.93
12:55:20	BUY	No	0.5589562479	533	$298.18
11:40:09	SELL	No	0.45	50	$22.50
10:21:33	SELL	No	0.47	50	$23.50
09:48:05	BUY	Yes	0.54	10	$5.40