PolyBot

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Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01
Rewards
20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.12. down 0.00 over the period, from 0.12. Range 0.12 to 0.13. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.12377377
0.13427803
0.1740843
0.245001,343
0.325001,843
0.60201,863
0.61181,881
0.7181,889
0.7451,894
0.8461,900
0.8991,909
0.9271,917

Spread0.01Mid0.11

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.11324324
0.10341665
0.085001,165
0.04141,179
0.032501,429
0.026712,100
0.011,5123,612

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.89324324
0.90341665
0.925001,165
0.96141,179
0.972501,429
0.986712,100
0.991,5123,612

Spread0.01Mid0.89

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.88377377
0.87427803
0.8340843
0.765001,343
0.685001,843
0.40201,863
0.39181,881
0.2981,889
0.2651,894
0.1661,900
0.1191,909
0.0871,917

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
Computerdude111Yes286.08
Dr.PNLYes212.07
AMAM13Yes104
clarkcharmYes100
planktonXDYes60
SuperTestsYes40
SlackjawYes38.82
AJSVYes32.04
winexecutescaleYes27
Mojito9Yes20
pppnnYes1.22
varch01No463.1
zk1984No400
LornaPredictsNo30
OlcanNo29.23

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
08:55:37SELLYes0.1110$1.10
03:38:34SELLNo0.881$1.08
03:38:33SELLNo0.8828$24.64
07:19:43SELLYes0.118$0.90
07:18:25SELLYes0.18$0.82
07:18:22BUYNo0.88999999028$7.28
07:18:22SELLYes0.111$0.13
07:18:21SELLYes0.1128$3.08
07:18:19BUYNo0.88999998371$1.09
07:18:18BUYNo0.8928$24.92
04:17:18SELLYes0.132$0.26
03:29:24SELLYes0.1418$2.52
03:29:21SELLYes0.1520$3.00
03:29:01SELLYes0.1540$6.00
02:40:06SELLYes0.1335$4.54
18:16:00SELLYes0.1420$2.80
22:51:16BUYYes0.1411$1.56
01:36:15BUYYes0.1640$6.40
20:23:27SELLYes0.156$0.88
19:21:34SELLNo0.8420$16.80
19:21:31SELLNo0.8766$57.42
19:13:30BUYYes0.1324$3.14
19:14:48SELLYes0.1230250$6.15
14:42:43SELLNo0.8610$8.60
14:15:33SELLNo0.865$4.30