Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends: 2027-04-01
Rewards: 20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.941. up 0.033 over the period, from 0.907. Range 0.905 to 0.950. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.951	100	100
0.960	40	140
0.961	190	330
0.962	20	350
0.996	27	377
0.997	47	424
0.998	70	494
0.999	12,582	13,076

Spread0.020Mid0.941

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.931	91	91
0.929	20	111
0.926	608	719
0.925	20	739
0.921	130	869
0.905	200	1,069
0.904	22	1,090
0.903	100	1,190
0.902	60	1,250
0.901	40	1,290
0.900	80	1,370
0.899	820	2,190

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.069	91	91
0.071	20	111
0.074	608	719
0.075	20	739
0.079	130	869
0.095	200	1,069
0.096	22	1,090
0.097	100	1,190
0.098	60	1,250
0.099	40	1,290
0.100	80	1,370
0.101	820	2,190

Spread0.020Mid0.059

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.049	100	100
0.040	40	140
0.039	190	330
0.038	20	350
0.004	27	377
0.003	47	424
0.002	70	494
0.001	12,582	13,076

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
LlamaLoco0000	Yes	848.65
Giorgio2	Yes	638.1
Stupendous-Innerstate	Yes	323.81
dlbbbdbdbdblw	Yes	300
0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209	Yes	276.69
0x43fC51C111bd17A8916F79475a07c106be63714d-1773446910586	Yes	110
chrispike2	Yes	22.03
macao.weather	Yes	20
K-GB	Yes	10
suntori	Yes	10
peri-	Yes	3.39
6sFjgt22jX8tME	Yes	2.2
0x0a069	Yes	1.35
0x01c9034e56CB1c4324d393f2B06DeEbA493539b2-1768697363000	Yes	1.12
lixiang79966	Yes	1.11
theta-thunberg	No	961.47
bogdanooo	No	598.77
SGR1806Magnetar	No	420
climateprofessor	No	100
LornaPredicts	No	100

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
18:45:58	SELL	Yes	0.931	31	$28.86
16:45:27	SELL	Yes	0.949	81	$76.87
22:14:48	SELL	Yes	0.926	20	$18.52
22:14:46	SELL	Yes	0.9269652727	55	$50.98
13:45:34	SELL	Yes	0.929	20	$18.58
13:45:33	SELL	Yes	0.932	125	$116.50
05:33:07	SELL	No	0.05	50	$2.50
01:27:18	SELL	No	0.051	15	$0.76
01:27:15	SELL	No	0.055	40	$2.20
01:27:07	SELL	No	0.055	40	$2.20
01:24:52	SELL	No	0.055	20	$1.10
01:24:28	SELL	No	0.064	20	$1.28
01:23:51	SELL	No	0.065	20	$1.30
01:23:48	BUY	Yes	0.9266644518	271	$251.03
16:34:42	BUY	Yes	0.93	20	$18.60
13:26:40	BUY	Yes	0.949	10	$9.49
06:34:58	BUY	Yes	0.9116666111	60	$54.69
20:13:12	BUY	No	0.1029999986	10	$1.00
14:27:40	BUY	No	0.1049999948	19	$2.00
13:35:27	BUY	No	0.1049999948	19	$2.00
13:02:48	BUY	No	0.104	25	$2.60
13:01:57	BUY	No	0.1039999958	19	$2.00
11:20:06	SELL	Yes	0.907	20	$18.14
23:18:10	SELL	Yes	0.91	50	$45.50
22:37:15	SELL	Yes	0.91	60	$54.60