Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends: 2027-04-01
Rewards: 20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.871. down 0.053 over the period, from 0.924. Range 0.834 to 0.931. 160 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.895	29	29
0.900	21	50
0.920	5	55
0.921	182	237
0.985	14	251
0.986	15	266
0.989	46	312
0.990	300	612
0.997	13	626
0.998	40	665
0.999	245	910

Spread0.048Mid0.871

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.847	28	28
0.842	19	46
0.841	20	66
0.838	40	106
0.827	8	114
0.825	10	124
0.824	10	134
0.823	10	144
0.822	10	154
0.821	10	164
0.820	20	184
0.812	20	204

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.153	28	28
0.158	19	46
0.159	20	66
0.162	40	106
0.173	8	114
0.175	10	124
0.176	10	134
0.177	10	144
0.178	10	154
0.179	10	164
0.180	20	184
0.188	20	204

Spread0.048Mid0.129

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.105	29	29
0.100	21	50
0.080	5	55
0.079	182	237
0.015	14	251
0.014	15	266
0.011	46	312
0.010	300	612
0.003	13	626
0.002	40	665
0.001	245	910

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
LlamaLoco0000	Yes	848.65
0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209	Yes	353.38
AJSV	Yes	29.01
PPMT	Yes	28.79
0xd10A59fCC18955EeAebd06D1234Cc3BD1e3fB9cD-1782111984332	Yes	5
peri-	Yes	3.39
0x0a069	Yes	1.35
0x01c9034e56CB1c4324d393f2B06DeEbA493539b2-1768697363000	Yes	1.12
lixiang79966	Yes	1.11
theta-thunberg	No	961.47
LornaPredicts	No	100
monoclith	No	82
Numitus1994	No	20.99
0x2247…4304	No	20
mehanizator	No	20
0xb8e5…6d4a	No	20
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	No	18.57
jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq	No	15
ammnnah	No	7.94
Dr.PNL	No	6.52

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
06:48:27	BUY	Yes	0.8949993601	1	$1.00
20:10:39	BUY	Yes	0.828	5	$4.14
16:01:23	BUY	Yes	0.88	40	$35.11
08:11:05	SELL	No	0.105	19	$1.94
00:23:44	BUY	Yes	0.886	3	$3.00
09:28:39	BUY	No	0.1259999047	8	$1.00
09:27:03	BUY	Yes	0.905	20	$18.18
09:26:56	BUY	No	0.1	9	$0.92
09:26:56	BUY	Yes	0.9	4	$3.43
09:51:06	BUY	Yes	0.9	1	$1.00
00:56:05	SELL	No	0.1213152	50	$6.07
00:52:47	SELL	No	0.132	20	$2.64
19:30:46	SELL	Yes	0.851	10	$8.51
17:27:26	SELL	No	0.097	0	$0.01
14:59:01	SELL	Yes	0.85191475	40	$34.08
14:50:16	SELL	Yes	0.86678875	40	$34.67
14:50:05	SELL	Yes	0.87686625	40	$35.07
14:39:52	SELL	Yes	0.91	40	$36.40
14:36:34	BUY	No	0.0966460481	291	$28.12
06:40:43	SELL	No	0.054	20	$1.08
00:02:06	SELL	No	0.062	20	$1.24
04:18:45	SELL	Yes	0.895	5	$4.47
04:18:28	SELL	Yes	0.896	5	$4.48
04:16:46	SELL	Yes	0.895	20	$17.90
02:09:30	SELL	No	0.088	4	$0.38