LlamaLoco0000
0x93fb8127a1b21a112b11af936361225df0563e4a
- Realised P&L
- $356.5k
- Volume
- $26.66M
- Markets traded
- 418
- Open portfolio
- $603.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded418
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$586.6kat 0.173China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- +$202.2kat 0.338Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$71.2kat 0.195Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
- +$68.6kat 0.091Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
- +$64.6kat 0.297Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 02:11 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.21 | $10.5k |
| 08-02 02:10 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.21 | $10.5k |
| 08-01 00:20 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.3k |
| 08-01 00:01 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $35.27 |
| 08-01 00:01 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.079 | $347.78 |
| 07-31 23:55 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.3k |
| 07-31 22:04 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.27 | $6.13 |
| 07-30 15:35 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $5.8k |
| 07-30 06:06 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.6938149199 | $9.8k |
| 07-30 03:46 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.13 | $3.7k |
| 07-30 02:34 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.35 |
| 07-29 20:51 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.21 | $3.5k |
| 07-29 20:48 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $5.61 |
| 07-29 19:16 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $206.85 |
| 07-29 02:06 | Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2403223475 | $269.29 |