0x43fC51C111bd17A8916F79475a07c106be63714d-1773446910586
0x43fc51c111bd17a8916f79475a07c106be63714d
- Realised P&L
- $263.78
- Volume
- $8.4k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $922.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.834 | 0.817 | $489.90 | −$10.70 |
| Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.968 | $106.42 | +$6.33 |
| Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.192 | $67.03 | +$15.53 |
| Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No | 0.610 | 0.735 | $66.15 | +$11.25 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.250 | 0.305 | $61.00 | +$11.00 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.945 | $55.59 | +$5.59 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No | 0.640 | 0.570 | $45.60 | −$5.60 |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · No | 0.380 | 0.105 | $16.58 | −$43.42 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.429 | 0.140 | $14.00 | −$28.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$113.50at 0.041Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$51.36at 0.140Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$32.00at 0.840Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$29.96at 0.590US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$20.00at 0.900Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 11:19 | Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.61 | $54.90 |
| 10-18 11:18 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1471257143 | $51.49 |
| 10-18 10:58 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $32.00 |
| 10-07 20:34 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.3799999996 | $60.00 |
| 10-07 20:15 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.62 | $80.60 |
| 10-02 03:52 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $50.00 |
| 09-20 16:12 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $58.00 |
| 07-10 06:52 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.775 | $77.50 |
| 07-10 06:01 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $20.00 |
| 07-07 10:52 | Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? | SELL | 0.1520572057 | $15.20 |
| 06-16 13:06 | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.428946925 | $40.73 |
| 06-16 07:56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.84 | $168.00 |
| 06-02 16:48 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.823 | $164.60 |
| 05-27 19:21 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.657 | $65.70 |
| 05-10 20:21 | Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | BUY | 0.9062679877 | $50.00 |