macao.weather
0x4989bfed5900ba096b08ba1f9b718464527c983e
- Realised P&L
- $11.5k
- Volume
- $642.6k
- Markets traded
- 971
- Open portfolio
- $381.62
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded971
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.645 | $141.89 | +$100.10 |
| Will Hong Kong have less than 20mm of precipitation in October? · No | 0.808 | 0.963 | $89.70 | +$14.40 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 3? · No | 0.121 | 0.999 | $56.12 | +$49.31 |
| Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record? · Yes | 0.693 | 0.750 | $45.75 | +$3.45 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.645 | $19.34 | +$0.45 |
| Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.967 | $19.33 | +$0.73 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.610 | 0.645 | $6.45 | +$0.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.015 | $2.73 | −$17.27 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.002 | $0.30 | −$1.50 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.209 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$6.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.243Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?
- +$1.9kat 0.146Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?
- +$1.4kat 0.054Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 19?
- +$1.1kat 0.324Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?
- +$973.95at 0.193Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 19:03 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 3? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.54 |
| 10-02 16:11 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.26 |
| 10-02 16:10 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.3767731526 | $11.68 |
| 10-02 16:04 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.25 |
| 10-02 16:04 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 10-02 15:57 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.57 |
| 10-02 14:18 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.1099999999 | $20.00 |
| 10-02 13:27 | Will Hong Kong have less than 20mm of precipitation in October? | SELL | 0.96 | $170.85 |
| 10-02 10:25 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.15 | $0.38 |
| 10-02 10:18 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.28 | $2.80 |
| 10-02 10:17 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.3 | $0.76 |
| 10-02 10:12 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $177.21 |
| 10-02 10:11 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.79 | $5.90 |
| 10-02 09:52 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.87 | $13.05 |
| 10-02 09:48 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.0265012469 | $0.53 |